海角大神

For the past two months of Mexico's election season, Enedina Gonzalez鈥檚 telephone has been ringing incessantly. But for every voice pitching a party candidate, Ms. Gonzalez has gotten a call from someone telling her not to vote.

The retired public school teacher in the troubled state of Guerrero says she has never missed an election.聽鈥淚鈥檓 a very democratic person,鈥� she says.

But just days before the June 7 vote to elect nine state governors, 500 federal deputies, and hundreds of mayors and state legislators, Gonzalez boarded a bus to Mexico City, where she鈥檒l sit out this election in a relative鈥檚 one-bedroom apartment.

鈥淚鈥檓 afraid,鈥� she says, 鈥渁nd I find it very sad.鈥� On her way to catch her bus in the Guerrero capital of Chilpancingo Wednesday, she was delayed by clashes between state police and anti-election demonstrators. 鈥淧eople don鈥檛 want to vote because we鈥檙e afraid of getting caught up in the violence.鈥澛�

Indeed, this weekend Mexicans will be wrapping up what analysts call the most violent election season in more than 15 years.

Upwards of 70 candidates and campaign workers have been attacked, and at least five candidates have been killed. Violent protests have also been on the rise in recent weeks, primarily in a handful of southern states where a dissident teachers鈥� union has reportedly stolen thousands of ballots and set electoral offices ablaze.

Observers fear that organized campaigns to disrupt voting, along with threats of election day violence, could lead to low turnout in some areas, with people like Gonzalez deciding it's safer not to vote.

鈥淭his is very worrying in terms of democracy,鈥� says Javier Oliva Posada, a political scientist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. He expects 95 percent of the voting centers to run smoothly on Sunday, but says the electoral process is threatened by 鈥渃itizens feeling intimidated.鈥�

'Social' violence the culprit?

Violence is an ongoing challenge in Mexico, where some 70,000 people have died and more than 20,000 have gone missing since 2006 as the country has battled organized criminal groups.

But Luis Carlos Ugalde, a former president of Mexico鈥檚 electoral institute and founder of the Integralia聽consulting firm, says the violence threatening the electoral process does not necessarily stem from those groups. 鈥淥rganized criminals have never tried to block elections as a strategy,鈥� Mr. Uglade says, unlike Colombia, where for decades that was the aim of guerrilla fighters and organized criminals.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not that the democratic process produces violence; it鈥檚 the context of violence we鈥檙e living in as a country fighting organized crime.鈥�

He points instead to 鈥渟ocial violence,鈥� largely stemming from a dissident teacher鈥檚 union and the families and classmates of the 43 teacher鈥檚 college students that disappeared at the hands of corrupt politicians, local police, and a criminal gang in Guerrero last fall.

The government appeared to try to head off聽electoral boycotts last week when it announced it would suspend a key part of the nation鈥檚 education reform, long protested by the dissident teacher鈥檚 union, The National Coordinator of Educational Workers. But union members haven鈥檛 backed down.

Protesters briefly shut down the airport in Oaxaca, and earlier in the week took control over 11 state election offices there, local media report. Four highways were blocked by demonstrators in the state of Michoac谩n on Wednesday as well, and a clash between protesters and police on a Guerrero highway left at least six injured.

鈥淭here is a risk of not holding elections [in some states], which would be the first time in modern history,鈥� Ugalde says. 鈥淚t would be a very bad symbol for our democratic process.鈥�

The National Electoral Institute (INE) says it is prepared to install all voting centers across the nation 鈥� including for individuals who can't return home to cast their ballots 鈥� but it鈥檚 now up to local and federal officials to ensure conditions are safe for citizens to actually vote.

In some parts of the country, particularly states with tight gubernatorial races like Nuevo Leon, voter turnout could be slightly higher. However, 鈥渓ots of elections could be too close to call," which could lead to post-electoral clashes, Ugalde warns.

Alternative voting centers

But to say that organized crime isn鈥檛 stymieing the election may be an oversimplification.

An estimated 290,000 Mexicans have been displaced from their communities due to violence, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center.聽

Displaced residents are eligible to vote in special INE polling stations, something that should benefit residents of Guerrero, which is estimated to have the largest portion of the nation鈥檚 displaced population.聽Over the past year, at least two communities have been expelled from their homes there, says Manuel Olivares, director of the Jos茅 Mar铆a Morelos y Pav贸n Regional Center for Human Rights. Other individuals have left due to threats, extortion, or kidnappings, he says.

But many people don鈥檛 know of the possibility to vote outside of their home community, says Mr. Olivares, and others will choose not to vote 鈥渂ecause the government hasn鈥檛 been able to resolve their problems.鈥�

For Gonzalez, life in her municipality of Tixtla de Guerrero has changed substantially over the past several years. Few people go out after 8 p.m., and she and her neighbors no longer leave their doors unlocked or host parties on their block. Nighttime mass at her church has been cancelled. But at least returning home is still an option.

鈥淚 think change will come from the people, not the government,鈥� she says. 鈥淏ut I don鈥檛 know what will happen to my beautiful little town.鈥澛犅�