海角大神

When Nicol谩s Maduro announced the death of then-President Hugo Ch谩vez on March 5, 2013, Venezuela鈥檚 streets flooded with red-clad supporters mourning their revolutionary leader鈥檚 death.

But that political landscape has changed. As Venezuela commemorates one year without its 鈥淐omandante鈥� Ch谩vez, who altered the course of history in this oil-rich nation, his successor鈥檚 capacity to sustain the聽Chavismo聽movement is facing its toughest challenge yet from opposition street protests.

In San Crist贸bal, a bastion of anti-Ch谩vez sentiment in western Venezuela, protesters intend to mark the date by staging an expanded march through the city, and defending their barricades of burning tires, old furniture, stoves, and garbage on the city鈥檚 sloping streets.

Manned by university students and residents of largely lower middle class neighborhoods, protesters late Tuesday stockpiled stones to prepare to confront police and the National Guard, who had vowed to clear the streets overnight.

Nationwide, the protesters say they are fed up with rampant crime and shortages of basic goods such as cooking oil, milk, and toilet paper. 鈥淭his is not about politics, this is about how we are forced to live,鈥� says Santiago Jaramillo as he stands at a barricaded intersection in San Crist贸bal.

The economic and security problems that animate protesters聽already existed under former President Ch谩vez. But after almost one year in office, President Maduro 鈥� who was elected in April 2013 by a razor-thin margin 鈥� has failed to confront the growing problems head on, analysts say.

鈥淐h谩vez bequeathed Maduro a warped, dysfunctional system shored up by petro-dollars, Chinese loans, political showmanship, and institutional control,鈥� says Rory Carroll, author of 鈥淐omandante: Hugo Ch谩vez鈥檚 Venezuela鈥�.聽 鈥淢aduro has been erratic and unable to tame the system's worsening distortions,鈥� says Mr. Carroll.

The opposition senses a weakness in Maduro, says George Ciccariello-Maher, a professor of political science at Drexel University, which makes him easier to challenge. 鈥淐h谩vez had a way to hold things together that Maduro doesn鈥檛,鈥� Mr. Ciccariello-Maher says.

'Expectations'

Residents in San Crist贸bal, a city of about 500,000 close to the border with Colombia, first took to the streets early last month. The demonstrations soon spread to Caracas and other cities, in the worst unrest in a decade in this country of 29 million. At least 18 people have been killed as protesters clash with security forces and Maduro supporters.

鈥淭his is the reflection of an accumulation of unmet expectations that come from 15 years of Chavismo,鈥� says San Cristobal mayor Daniel Ceballos, an opposition politician.聽

Though the antigovernment protesters, made up mostly of the middle class and economic elites, has failed to rally poorer sectors of Venezuelan society 鈥� where Ch谩vez had his strongest support 鈥� even some self-professed Chavistas may be wavering.聽

Seamstress Gladys Delgado still has sun-stained portraits of Ch谩vez on the walls of her home in El Hatillo, a suburb of Caracas. But things aren鈥檛 the same since he died, she says.

"There are long lines for everything now. And there are so many shortages that sometimes there are riots in the supermarkets,鈥� Ms. Delgado says.

鈥淚 am disappointed in Maduro. I don鈥檛 see that he鈥檚 capable of resolving the situation,鈥� she says. But for Delgado, the opposition won't get her vote.聽

Despite widespread discontent, the protesters鈥� dissatisfaction with Maduro is unlikely to topple the president.聽

鈥淭he chance of the government coming down is close to zero,鈥� says Ciccariello-Maher, author of 鈥淲e Created Ch谩vez: A People鈥檚 History of the Venezuelan Revolution.鈥� He adds that demonstrations are far smaller than the protests that briefly unseated Ch谩vez in a 2002 coup.

鈥淭he armed forces are solidly Chavista and there continues to be a solid base of Chavismo,鈥� he says.

In Caracas today, a military parade will mark the anniversary of when Maduro announced to the nation that Ch谩vez, who suffered from cancer, had died. A ceremony at the shantytown mausoleum where Chavez鈥檚 remains are buried is to follow.

But the event is bittersweet for Delagado, who emphasizes that Maduro is not Ch谩vez. 鈥淗e has no character, he is not the wise man that Ch谩vez was.鈥�

- Andrew Rosati contributed reporting from Caracas.