海角大神

For two decades,聽Sandra Rivera worked in one of this city鈥檚 maquiladoras, factories that receive materials from the United States and return them as brand-name clothes: Nike, Abercrombie & Fitch, Fruit of the Loom.

But last month, Ms. Rivera struck a deal with her employer, agreeing to be laid off from her job sewing T-shirts聽in order to receive back wages. Waiting in a packed unemployment office, Rivera, 36, says her age and lack of a high school diploma have made finding work nearly impossible.

鈥淭he only thing I ask from the next government,鈥� she says, 鈥渋s that they generate more employment, and that there are opportunities for older people like myself.鈥�

On Sunday, Hondurans will choose a new president. Though the Central American nation has the highest murder rate in the world, with an average of 20 murders per day that shows no sign of dropping, election-season polls show that residents worry at least as much about economic problems as they do crime. More Hondurans are living in poverty, and fewer are formally employed than they were four years ago, when a military coup deposed then-President Manuel Zelaya.

The two front-runners have stumped on economic proposals, but have offered few specifics. Some business leaders, meanwhile, have responded to the economic crisis with radical plans to create city-size trade zones that would have their own autonomous governments, police, and laws.

鈥淩apidly declining living standards will be a pressing issue for whoever is elected,鈥� says Jake Johnston, an analyst with the DC-based Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).

Employment drops

In the four years since the coup, poverty levels and the gap between the rich and the poor have increased dramatically. While most of the region has seen a reduction in inequality, Honduras has the greatest wealth disparity in Latin America, according to a聽report released this month by CEPR. Of the country鈥檚 8 million people, 46聽percent are now living in extreme poverty, up from 36 percent five years ago.聽

鈥淚n a country plagued by record-high levels of violence,鈥� says Mr. Johnston, "increasing poverty, unemployment, and inequality will only exacerbate the problem.鈥澛�

Honduras鈥檚 recent economic woes began with the US recession of 2008, which hit the maquiladoras hard. The following year, the ousting of Mr. Zelaya resulted in a holdup of essential foreign assistance.

Honduras missed out on hundreds of millions聽of dollars in聽grants and聽credits聽in 2009, and to make up the shortfall, it took on unfavorable loans that it鈥檚 still paying off. Even after aid flows resumed, Honduras continued to rack up public debt, which now tops聽$7 billion,聽and it's estimated聽that a fifth of next year鈥檚 budget will be designated to paying it off. No聽one knows for sure, though 鈥� the budget is sealed in an envelope that the parties have agreed not to open until after the elections.

Unable to raise revenues,聽the聽Honduran government has resorted to simply not paying doctors, nurses, teachers, and other public sector workers,聽who have responded over the past year with strikes.

Many of the applicants crowding San Pedro Sula鈥檚 unemployment office have been without regular work for months. Like Rivera, who now makes a living washing clothes, most have taken on informal jobs selling food or cleaning buildings, joining the growing number of underemployed here. According to CEPR, the number of people working full time but not receiving聽the monthly minimum wage 颅鈥� which varies by industry but聽is on average about $340 a month 鈥� has jumped from 28 percent of the workforce in 2008 to more than 40 percent this year.

The informal sector is becoming 鈥渁 refuge鈥� for unemployed Hondurans, says Guillermo Altamirano, an economist in San Pedro Sula. But this type of work generates incomes of about $130 a month, less than a third the average minimum wage, Mr. Altamirano says.

Crime and violence

The presidential campaigns have focused largely on crime and violence. Altamirano says these issues carry economic consequences as well: Foreign investment has stagnated, partly due to security concerns. According to the Inter-American Development Bank, crime and violence cost Honduras $1.7 billion in 2010, or about 10 percent of its gross domestic product.

Still, Altamirano says, 鈥渢here are no clear proposals from the candidates鈥� on how to get past the economic crisis.

The most recent polls have the two lead presidential candidates, Xiomara Castro de Zelaya, and Juan Orlando Hern谩ndez, in a statistical tie. The last CID-Gallup poll, in October, had Mr. Hern谩ndez with 28 percent support, compared to 27 percent for Ms. Castro.

Castro, head of a new left-leaning party called Libre and wife of ousted President Zelaya, has said she would curb government spending and seek new streams of foreign investment to ameliorate problems with the economy. She also promised agrarian reform聽and credit programs聽as anti-poverty聽measures.

Hern谩ndez, head of congress and part of the conservative National聽party, has promised to boost manufacturing and agriculture in an effort to create jobs, and to expand a cash-assistance program for the country鈥檚 poorest families.

Both candidates say they would crack down on the country鈥檚 rampant tax evasion聽and seek a new deal with the International Monetary Fund, something that outgoing President Porfirio Lobo failed to do. Honduran economists have predicted that such a deal would involve lower public salaries, privatizing some state utilities, and devaluing the currency.

Thinking outside of the box?

In San Pedro Sula, the nation鈥檚 business capital, industry leaders are promoting a solution all their own 颅鈥� one they say would alleviate economic and security concerns in one stroke.

Employment and Economic Development Zones, or聽ZEDEs, legally sanctioned last year after a series of constitutional amendments, would be run independently of Honduras鈥檚 national government. They would comprise, in some cases, whole cities complete with their own courts, tax systems, and police 鈥� and a lot of factories.

By being beyond the legal reach of corrupt institutions and immune to shifts in political power, the zones are positioned to thrive 颅鈥� and to spur investment, says textile magnate Daniel Facuss茅, the president of Honduras鈥� association of maquiladoras.

Critics of these zones counter that they would weaken Honduras鈥� institutions further, insulate businesses from civil rights, labor, and environmental laws, and likely fail anyway. The first test of their viability will come on election day, when the 100,000-some residents of two towns, Pe帽a Blanca and Suyapa, vote to decide whether they want to be governed as ZEDEs.聽聽

Mr. Facuss茅 insists that the zones are the only way to attract foreign investment and create jobs.

鈥淲e need to realize that Honduras by itself does not have enough money to be able to provide decent jobs for everybody that needs them,鈥� he says.

For many in San Pedro Sula鈥檚 unemployment office, any job will do.

Alejandro Cabrera has cleaned bathrooms, welded, and sold tacos this year. These informal jobs have helped him cover whatever necessities his wife鈥檚 income from a textile factory often can鈥檛. But he would prefer something steady that lets him take care of the couple鈥檚 two sons.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not easy to go home when you don鈥檛 have a job,鈥� Mr. Cabrera says, fiddling with his wedding ring. 鈥淎t times, my sons ask for something and I can鈥檛 bring it to them.鈥�