海角大神

In his bid to win Venezuela鈥檚 presidency, Henrique Capriles Radonski has reminded supporters and opponents of the obvious: Hugo Ch谩vez is not his opponent.

Interim President Nicol谩s Maduro 鈥渋s not Ch谩vez and you all know it,鈥� he said in a press conference Sunday announcing his candidacy. 鈥淧resident Ch谩vez is no longer here.鈥�

What Mr. Capriles knows well, however, is that while Ch谩vez may not be on the ticket, the socialist party鈥檚 political machine that helped win Ch谩vez reelections four times, remains formidable.聽 From the ubiquitous state-run television stations that have broadcasted 聽all of Mr. Maduro鈥檚 recent public appearances, to the massive get-out-the-vote campaign, the party is well prepared to spring into action in a short campaign.

鈥淗e knows it鈥檚 going to be difficult,鈥� says an official from one of the opposition parties that teamed to nominate Capriles. 鈥淵ou鈥檙e not running against just Maduro.鈥�

Capriles is taking a huge risk by running. He will have to step down as governor of Miranda state to stand as candidate for a job he ran for just months ago when Ch谩vez soundly defeated him with 55 percent of the vote.

Capriles has acknowledged his role as an underdog, saying Monday, 鈥渋t鈥檚 a totally unequal fight, a fight against the state.鈥�

Capriles has already complained that the government is flouting the Constitution by running Maduro as its candidate. As vice president, Maduro should have had to step down before running for president, per the law, Capriles says.

But instead the Venezuelan Supreme Court ruled Friday that Maduro could run for president, and he was named interim president that night.

'System already in place'

The United Socialist Party of Venezuela鈥檚 campaign muscle was on full display Monday as thousands of Chavistas arrived at the military academy where Ch谩vez鈥檚 corpse is being displayed in an open casket. They had been bused into Caracas from the country鈥檚 interior.

鈥淲e came in on the bus to show our support for President Ch谩vez, our love for him,鈥� says Ana Araujo, repeating a refrain heard often since Ch谩vez鈥檚 body arrived at the academy Wednesday.

Ms. Araujo traveled 12 hours from the far-flung Zulia state on a bus provided by the government along with thousands of others in a reminder of the party鈥檚 ability to mobilize supporters.

鈥淭here鈥檚 an obvious advantage for Maduro because the system is already in place. It was effective last year,鈥� says Carlos Romero, a political analyst at Venezuela鈥檚 Central University, referencing the 2012 presidential election in which Ch谩vez defeated Capriles by 11 percentage points. 鈥淚t will be difficult in a short campaign to overcome that.鈥�

The election has been set for April 14, and official campaigning can take place for only 10 days in early April, giving Capriles little time to make inroads with voters that he failed to win over in October.

While he has support among middle- and uppe- class Venezuelans, Capriles has been seen as moving more toward the center in an attempt to capture more support in the poor neighborhoods that have made up Ch谩vez鈥檚 base.

鈥淲e plan to be aggressive, much more aggressive,鈥� says Oswaldo Ramirez, who heads a Caracas political consultancy working on the Capriles campaign. 鈥淢any of the structural problems Venezuela faces have only become more entrenched since the campaign of 2012.鈥�

Mr. Ramirez says Capriles plans to highlight crime 鈥� a concern for most Venezuelans, especially in the capital 鈥� unemployment, and economic concerns.

Ramirez says that this time around Capriles can run on the future of the country rather than Ch谩vez鈥檚 record.

鈥淥ne of the main differences between last year and now is the physical absence of Hugo Ch谩vez,鈥� Ramirez says. 鈥淲e can talk about the last 14 years [Ch谩vez鈥檚 tenure] and 鈥� say that it鈥檚 time to make things better.鈥�

'Man of the street'

Polls taken before Ch谩vez died gave Maduro the advantage over Capriles with a sizable undecided segment. The sympathy vote for Ch谩vez, who had the political foresight to name a successor in Maduro, will likely translate into additional votes.

Maduro, a burly former bus driver who has tried to utilize some of Ch谩vez鈥檚 oratory devices in recent days, has made it clear that he has neither the charisma nor the leadership skills of his mentor.

鈥淚鈥檓 a man of the street. 鈥� I鈥檓 not Ch谩vez,鈥� he said Sunday. 鈥淚鈥檓 interim president, commander of the armed forces and presidential candidate because this is what Ch谩vez decided and I鈥檓 following his orders.鈥� 聽聽