海角大神

It was what many consider the most dangerous moment the world has ever faced: the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, which saw the United States square off over nuclear missiles stationed by the Soviet Union in Cuba.

This week marks the 50th anniversary of the beginning of the tense standoff. And while the politics of the cold war have little relevance for US-Latin American relations today, in some ways the US finds itself in the very position that set the stage for conflict in the first place, says Philip Brenner, a historian of the missile crisis at American University. With US influence waning in the region, Latin America is forging ahead with its own agenda.

It was not only the containment of communism that drove US attempts to oust Fidel Castro from the helm of Cuba in the early 1960s, says Mr. Brenner. The US was also concerned about Latin American countries emulating Cuba, particularly its geopolitical stance in the cold war, and thus undermining American leadership in the Western Hemisphere. Some 50 years later, the US faces the same situation, just a more modern iteration.

鈥淲hat the US feared the most in 1962 has come to pass,鈥� says Brenner, who wrote "Sad and Luminous Days: Cuba's Struggle with the Superpowers after the Missile Crisis."聽 鈥淲e were concerned about our sphere of influence that we had taken for granted.鈥� [Today] we cannot dominate this region anymore. They do not look to us for leadership. Countries look within the region, and to some extent to Cuba still.鈥�

After the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the US turned its attention from Latin America as it focused on terrorism and threats from the Middle East. At the same time, over the past decade Latin American democracy has flourished and the global economy shifted, with Latin America no longer looking just north to the US for leadership and investment, but to India, China, and Russia. China surpassed the US as Brazil鈥檚 biggest trading partner in 2009.

Investment from outside

Most of these relationships are economic in nature among emerging economies. If Russia, for example, once eyed Cuba to buoy its political project close to the American border, today it is inking energy deals and selling arms in Latin America because it finds willing partners and purchasers there.

鈥淩ussia is going to sell all kinds of arms to Venezuela, not because [Venezuelan President] Hugo Ch谩vez is saying he is socialist. It鈥檚 because he has money to pay for it,鈥� says Alex Sanchez, a senior research fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs.

The flurry of investment in countries ranging from Venezuela to Bolivia helps to further undermine US global dominance in the region, a scenario that many leaders welcome today. Chief among them is Mr. Ch谩vez, who just won another six-year term in office, and his allies including President Evo Morales in Bolivia and President Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua.

Indeed, the anniversary of the Cuban missile crisis will likely provide an opportunity for the 鈥渆xtreme left鈥� in Latin America聽to express support for Cuba, says Johns Hopkins Latin American expert Riordan Roett. 鈥淭hey will be in solidarity about the survival of the Castro brothers,鈥� Mr. Roett says.

'A linchpin' in the region

That kind of defiance 鈥� showing respect for a nation that for so long the US has considered a thorn in its side 鈥� would have been unthinkable 50 years ago. Before the Cuban missile crisis, after the failed Bay of Pigs invasion, the US pressured Latin American countries to suspend Cuba鈥檚 membership from the Organization of American States聽(OAS). At the same time, Cuba signed onto the nonaligned movement, and Brenner says it was that move that the US feared other countries in Latin America might follow. At the time, US thinking on the movement was, 鈥榶ou are with us or you are against us.鈥�

The politics surrounding Cuba at the OAS highlights the declining influence of the US in the region.聽Fifty years ago, the US advocated Cuba鈥檚 suspension and was successful; but during the group鈥檚 summit in April, leaders across political spectrums said they would question attending another summit without Cuba at the table.

鈥淭his comes from [Colombian President Juan Manuel] Santos, our most loyal ally in the region," says Brenner. "Cuba was once the pariah state; it is now a linchpin for all the other countries.鈥�