海角大神

When Alvaro Colom was elected president here in 2007, it was voters like Olga Choc Rodriguez that gave him the edge.

An unemployed indigenous Mayan with a child whose belly she has trouble keeping full, Ms. Choc believed Mr. Colom 鈥� a left-of-center candidate 鈥� would combat endemic poverty.

Four years later, she seems a natural fit to vote for Colom鈥檚 successor in the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party, Sandra Torres.

鈥淚 think the president has good programs for the poor, ones that help us, like this one,鈥� she says, waiting outside one of the scores of food pantries the Colom administration opened. She says she eats there with her 7-year-old daughter regularly.

鈥淪andra would have the same projects,鈥� she says, pausing to think, 鈥渂ut she鈥檚 divorced.鈥�

For American voters, who have become accustomed to political sex scandals and moral improprieties far graver than divorce (if it even rises to impropriety), Ms. Torres鈥檚 peccadillo may seem tame. But Guatemala is not the US鈥檚 cultural equivalent. Nor is Torres the average candidate. She鈥檚 the former first lady.

Torres divorced Colom to skirt a constitutional provision banning family members of sitting president from running for the following election. The controversy that followed, a series of smaller scandals and a political climate dominated by the question over how the country should combat a crippling crime wave, has turned the would-be first female president of Guatemala into a long shot. As the Sept. 11 first round approaches, her opponent, a former military general with a checkered past, is pulling away, according to recent polls.

'Divorce for her country'

Guatemala鈥檚 Constitution, which also prevents Colom from running for a consecutive term, prohibits family members from running to prevent family dynasties. In an emotional address in April, Torres said, 鈥淚 am divorcing my husband, but marrying the people. 鈥� I am not going to be the first or last woman who decides to get a divorce, but I am the only one to divorce for her country.鈥�

The divorce was scandalous in a country where churches big and small, Catholic and evangelical, sit on every street of every city and village. The powerful Catholic Bishops鈥� Conference said the institution of marriage was not negotiable.

The perhaps more powerful association that represents big business owners, CACIF, was less charitable. 鈥淭hese actions illustrate the decline of moral values of society,鈥� the group said in a statement. 鈥淗ow can we expect to restore Guatemala鈥檚 moral and fundamental values if its presidential pair send a message like this?鈥�

A political bulldog with Tammy Faye Baker eyes, Torres has defended her decision to end the civil marriage.

But the divorce was followed by a series of scandals, including a legal effort by her own sister to invalidate Torres鈥� candidacy.

鈥淭he divorce has been a distraction that she has not really been able to overcome,鈥� says Guillermo M茅ndez, a professor at Guatemala鈥檚 Francisco Marroqu铆n University and founder of the Institute for Services to the Nation, which is trying to inform voters on candidate positions. 鈥淗er campaign has not recovered enough for her to be able to deliver her message.鈥�

Torres is pursuing a strategy that mirrors the one that put her ex-husband in office. He was the first president to lose the important Guatemala City vote and still win the presidency, thanks to the support of poor, rural voters.

Early on, Torres took charge of the Colom administration鈥檚 marquee antipoverty project, aimed at the same population. The program includes food pantries and cash payments of $40 a month to families that send their children to school and for vaccines regularly.

Opponents accuse her of 鈥渦sing [the program] to buy the First Lady a political support base for her presidential aspirations,鈥� the US Embassy wrote in a cable in 2009, more than a year before she declared her intentions.

The program reached 814,625 families in 2010, but 鈥渢hose family, who are poor and mostly indigenous can recognize when someone is trying to take advantage of them for political purposes,鈥� says M贸nica Leonardo, a professor at Guatemala鈥檚 University of the Isthmus and a lawyer with the Pro Justice Movement. 鈥淢ore importantly, her discourse has been left-leaning and people, even if they are poor, are not going to buy the left-wing rhetoric in this election.鈥�

A mano dura alternative

In recent polls, she鈥檚 trailed her opponent 鈥� former military general Otto P茅rez Molina 鈥� by as few as 7 points and as many as 30 points. Although the polls have historically been unreliable here, they are unanimously against her.

鈥淪he ran without considering the consequences. I don鈥檛 think she listened when people said she didn鈥檛 have a chance to win,鈥� says Sandino Asturias, director of the liberal Center for Guatemalan Studies. 鈥淢aybe her ego made the decision.鈥�

Mr. P茅rez, runner-up to Colom in the previous election, campaigns as a mano dura candidate, meaning he鈥檇 take a hard-handed approach to drugs, arms, and human trafficking, and gang violence.

鈥淲e don鈥檛 want the violence and insecurity found in Guatemala. There will be 25,000 murders under this government, 25,000 families who lost [someone] ... and this government doesn鈥檛 care,鈥� P茅rez鈥檚 campaign told the Monitor in a statement.

P茅rez came up through the military ranks during Guatemala鈥檚 36-year-long civil war in which 200,000 people were killed, 93 percent by the military, a truth commission found. P茅rez commanded a military unit in the western department of Quiche, where more than 300 massacres took place. He also directed a feared military intelligence agency. The war ended in 1996 with the signing of peace accords between rebel forces and the government. P茅rez represented the military in the peace accords negotiations.

As the first round vote nears (a run-off will held in November unless a candidate wins the majority), P茅rez has focused less on the drastic measures for which he was once known 鈥� like an antigang bill that would have imprisoned gang members even if they had not committed a crime.

鈥淵ou see him moderating his approach now. His mano dura approach is being framed as just complying with existing laws,鈥� Ms. Leonardo says. 鈥淚 think he realizes that he has to appear more moderate. 鈥� Unless something drastic happens, he鈥檚 going to win this election.鈥�