South Sudan: Strife more about personal power than tribal hate?
A version of this post originally appeared on blog. The views expressed are the author's own.聽
Editor's note: As this was published Dec. 27 the South Sudan government agreed to end hostilities; however, no word had been heard from the principal opposition figure, Riek Machar, whose group did not attend talks in Juba.
The current crisis in South Sudan聽escalated on Dec. 15, when President Salva Kiir accused his long-time political rival former vice president Riek Machar of attempting a coup.
Since then, there has been widespread fighting between the supporters of the two, with 鈥渢housands鈥� killed and yet more thousands displaced.聽
Foreign governments, including the United States, are evacuating their nationals, many of whom have fled to UN encampments. The fighting is likely to impact on South Sudan鈥檚 oil production, though thus far it does not appear to have spooked the international oil markets.
Mostly 海角大神 South Sudan鈥檚 struggle for independence from al-Bashir鈥檚 repressive, Islamist government in Khartoum has long been a popular cause, especially in the developed world but also in much of sub-Saharan Africa.
In the two years since South Sudan鈥檚 independence, international donors has greatly expanded their assistance levels, and there are now significant numbers of expatriates working on various aid projects. Accordingly, there has been the usual hand-wringing and official statements by leaders of the UN Security Council and countries that have citizens on the ground in South Sudan聽calling for a cessation of this round of fighting.
The European Commission is聽, Alex Rondos, to South Sudan. He was scheduled to arrive yesterday. Ethiopian prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn聽and Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta are already there. 聽is to organize and facilitate negotiations between the two warring factions.
However, Mr. Machar has said at various times that he will enter negotiations only after Salva Kiir releases the former鈥檚 supporters held captive. At other times, Machar insists on Salva Kiir鈥檚 resignation as a precondition. Getting genuine negotiations underway聽will聽likely be a challenge.
In the meantime, on Christmas Eve, the UN Security Council voted to increase the number of UN peacekeepers from 7,000 to 12,500 and the international police in South Sudan from 900 to 1,300.
The troops and the police, all from sub-Saharan African countries, will be pulled from UN missions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ivory Coast, Liberia, and Abeiyi, the territory disputed by Sudan and South Sudan.
聽place the fighting in an ethnic context, conflict between the Dinka, led by Salva Kiir, and the Nuer, led by Machar.
That there is now an important ethnic dimension to the killing is undeniable.
However, Andreas Hirblinger聽and Sara de Simone, in 鈥�,鈥� places the ethnic struggle in a sophisticated context. They argue,聽inter alia, that 鈥渆thnicity provides a lens through which power struggles have been framed throughout most of South Sudan鈥檚 recent history.鈥�
They show how personal and factional rivalries within the presidential guard spread to the armed forces, and how the threat of ethnic conflict can further an often personal agenda.
As external聽involvement in South Sudan intensifies, Hirblingier and Simone are essential reading. Their article appeared December 24 in聽African Arguments.
