Why South Africa won't try tough love approach with Zimbabwe's Mugabe
鈥 version of this post first appeared on the blog . The views expressed are the author's own.聽
It is no secret that Zimbabwe鈥檚 two days of early voting for the country's security forces on July 14-15 did not go well. Lindiwe Zulu, former ambassador to Brazil and current international relations adviser to South Africa president Jacob Zuma, had the temerity to say so.
She commented publicly that the polling in the general election, slated for July 31, would be challenging.聽In聽response, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, who previously called Ms. Zulu 鈥�,鈥� demanded that President Zuma 鈥渟top this woman of [his] from speaking on Zimbabwe.鈥� Whereupon President Zuma, through his spokesman, promptly disavowed Zulu, as did South Africa's governing African National Congress.聽
Knuckling under to Mugabe recalls the Zuma government鈥檚聽聽to the Dalai Lama for fear of offending the Chinese in 2011. How do we account for it?
Writing in the South African聽Daily Maverick,聽Greg Nicolson聽provides聽. Zuma has consistently followed a 鈥渟oft diplomacy鈥� approach to Mugabe, appeasing him in public while (presumably) talking sternly in private. The thrust of Mr. Nicolson鈥檚 piece is that South Africa and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have failed to聽reform Zimbabwe politics in the aftermath of the 2008 post-elections bloodbath. Looking toward聽the upcoming 2013 Zimbabwean elections, if South Africa and SADC want to stay involved, they know they will need to work with Mugabe. So, he writes, 鈥淟indiwe Zulu was sacrificed on the altar of diplomacy.鈥�
South Africa's official political opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA), sent election observers to Zimbabwe for the special polling earlier this month. Unsurprisingly, 聽in the polling, including the police and the army campaigning for Mugabe鈥檚 ruling ZANU PF party.
In response, the DA argues that Zuma should abandon his diplomatic soft approach: 鈥淚t is clear that the South African government鈥檚 quiet diplomacy has done nothing to curtail poor pre-election preparations and continued aggression towards voters, especially in rural constituencies. It is now time for President Zuma to consider a hard line approach," they wrote.聽
What happens in Zimbabwe, of course, has consequences for neighboring South Africa. Not least because, if there is widespread violence following the upcoming elections, there could be a new refugee flow from Zimbabwe to South Africa. That's what happened after the last election, in 2008, helping to trigger a wave of xenophobic attacks across South Africa.聽
