Will Zimbabwe's Morgan Tsvangirai be Africa's next fallen hero?
鈥 version of this post ran on the author's blog,聽.聽The views expressed are the author's own.
Friends of Africa often anoint selected leaders from that continent as heroes聽鈥渇or the moment."聽
Nigeria鈥檚 Olusegun Obasanjo, Congo鈥檚 Mobutu Sese-Seko, Zimbabwe鈥檚 Robert Mugabe, and Rwanda鈥檚 Paul Kagame have all enjoyed that status at one time or another. Often the 鈥渉ero鈥� immediately follows a tyrant鈥搊r chaos.聽
Mr. Obasanjo followed a generation of military rulers, and his immediate predecessor was the 鈥渢yrant鈥� Sani Abacha who resorted to judicial murder; Mr. Mobutu emerged from Congo鈥檚 domestic chaos and civil war and promised inoculation against the Communists; Mr. Mugabe followed the racist regime of Ian Smith and promised racial reconciliation; and Mr. Kagame 鈥渆nded鈥� the genocide in Rwanda.
The pattern is that these 鈥渉eroes鈥� fall from grace as they wrestle with monumental problems of governance or with their personal devils 鈥� or both. Hence, Obasanjo tried for an unconstitutional presidential third term with the suspicion that he intended to become president for life, Mobutu established a kleptocracy, Mugabe resorted to racism and destroyed Zimbabwe鈥檚 economy for a time, and Kagame has been implicated in the Rwandan looting of the eastern Congo.
Reluctance to relinquish power is a widespread problem among African chiefs of state. The聽聽for an African chief of state who pursues good governance and voluntarily steps down from office when his term ends has not been awarded for the past three years because of the lack of a credible candidate.
Nelson Mandela is an exception to this pattern.聽Anointed a 鈥渉ero,鈥� his policies of reconciliation, political skills, and genuine devotion to democracy and human rights precluded a fall from international grace. History shows that genuine heroes are few, and there is often ambiguity.聽In our own history, George Washington was a land speculator, Thomas Jefferson was a slave owner, and Abraham Lincoln was slow to embrace abolition.
As for Africa, too often, exaggerated international hopes and expectations for the African 鈥渕an of the hour鈥� are disappointed and the 鈥渉ero鈥� evolves into a 鈥渂ig man鈥� in the eyes of Africa鈥檚 foreign friends.
, in a thoughtful article, argues that this process of heroic designation followed almost inevitably by disappointment, is at present underway with respect to Morgan Tsvangirai, the major opposition leader to the fallen hero Robert Mugabe. Mr. Tinhu posits that Mr. Tsvangirai is likely to be the next president of Zimbabwe if the elections later this year are genuinely free and fair.
But Tinhu discusses episodes in Tsvangirai鈥檚 past that cloud his democratic and human rights protestations. Tinhu sees the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) under Tsvangirai鈥檚 leadership as increasingly intolerant of criticism and not democratic in its inner workings. And his private life has been marred by scandals that raise questions about his personal judgment. In short, Tsvangirai is no Nelson Mandela.
As Tinhu observers, Zimbabwe under Tsvangirai might not be so different from Mugabe鈥檚 rule. Tsvangirai鈥檚 election does not guarantee a fundamental change in Zimbabwe鈥檚 political system. Outsiders, especially, underestimate Mugabe鈥檚 popularity with the poor and hitherto landless.
Mugabe might well win a genuinely free and fair election.聽However, he is unlikely to take any risks.
