Nigeria clout to rise in post-Qaddafi Africa
On Monday I asked what the fall of Col. Muammar Qaddafi might , a question that bears on what his fall means for Africa as a whole.
This question took on new intensity yesterday as .
Nigeria, a major oil producer and the most populous country in Africa, could find its role changed, and expanded, in the post-Qaddafi Africa.
All is not yet said and done in Libya: with rumors and falsehoods circulating, and Qaddafi himself still free, it鈥檚 hard to tell what is currently going on in the country, to say nothing of what the ramifications of events may be. With that said, though, actors like Nigeria are not waiting for the dust to settle before they move.
Nigeria was not the first African country to recognize the TNC (that honor, I believe, belongs to ). Other nations in West Africa have since recognized the TNC (like ) or called for Qaddafi to quit (like ). But Nigeria鈥檚 decision could have a strong and controversial impact on the continent.
The move has already attracted from the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa, which says that Nigeria is 鈥渏umping the gun鈥� by recognizing the rebels before the African Union (AU) makes its decision.
The ANC鈥檚 comments highlight the political complexity of the Libya issue in Africa: Nigeria and South Africa, which are both members of the United Nations Security Council, both voted in favor of imposing a No Fly Zone on Libya, but South Africa has subsequently objected to NATO鈥檚 military intervention in Libya.
Perhaps the ANC鈥檚 criticism of Nigeria reflects how difficult South Africa鈥檚 balancing act has become, as South Africa strives to stay involved in negotiating political outcomes in Libya while at the same time seeking to stand as a champion of African opposition to outside interference.
Clash of Africa's powers
If Nigeria and South Africa are indeed the two 鈥淎frican superpowers,鈥� South Africa may feel threatened by Nigeria taking the initiative in this fashion. South Africa may fear that other countries will soon follow Nigeria鈥檚 lead, which would make the AU a follower, and not a forger, of the African stance on Libya.
Why did Nigeria break with Libya?
The reasons are not entirely clear, though the simplest explanation may be that Nigerian leaders believe Qaddafi has no chance, and that future harmony between the two countries will be enhanced if Nigeria recognizes the TNC now.
In any case, Nigerian leaders may not be sad to see Qaddafi go. Nigeria has not felt the same level of Libyan 鈥渕eddling鈥� that countries like Chad have, but Qaddafi and his Nigerian counterparts have on a number of issues.
Qaddafi meddling has irked Nigeria
Nigerian leaders strongly objected last year when as a solution to interreligious conflict, and the row intensified to the point that Nigeria withdrew its ambassador from Tripoli for a time.
That is not to say that Nigeria has relished the current conflict. In March, Nigerian Foreign Minister in fact decried the No Fly Zone, arguing that intervening in Libya while allowing crisis to continue in Cote d鈥橧voire represented a horrible double standard.
In June, to help stop the NATO bombings, and President Goodluck Jonathan promised to raise the issue at the summer鈥檚 AU summit. As with other African countries, the politics of the Libyan intervention have not been easy for Nigeria.
The fall of Qaddafi, however, may be to Nigeria鈥檚 advantage.
argued as much in March, when he said that disruptions in Libyan oil production could increase Europeans鈥� reliance on and willingness to pay top dollar for Nigerian oil.
Sabotage continues to damage Nigerian production, but with Libyan output likely to be short of full capacity for quite some time, Nigeria may yet reap the benefits.
Politically, Nigeria may also find that in Qaddafi鈥檚 absence it becomes an even stronger player in African affairs 鈥� if, that is, Nigerian leaders want that.
Through the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 鈥� of which Jonathan is currently chairman 鈥� and through its own political clout, Nigeria could take advantage of Qaddafi鈥檚 fall and the resulting power vacuum to push its goals of in West Africa and beyond.
Nigeria has internal problems, of course, including the rebellion by the Boko Haram militant group and lingering grievances in the oil-rich Niger Delta. But Nigeria鈥檚 financial and political influence could loom larger in the post-Qaddafi Africa, where Libyan petrodollars and the Colonel鈥檚 machinations are no longer the force they once were.
