Five challenges South Sudan will face after referendum
Attention is turning from South Sudan鈥檚 referendum on independence, which yielded a nearly unanimous 鈥測es鈥� vote, to South鈥檚 Sudan鈥檚 future. Here are five challenges the new country will face:
1. Borders
Even though North Sudan appears resigned to the South鈥檚 secession, the two countries will still have to agree on the precise border that divides them. One major piece of that puzzle is Abyei, an oil-rich region that was supposed to hold its own referendum and decide whether it would secede along with the South or remain with the North. Due to disagreements between North and South Sudanese leaders, Abyei鈥檚 referendum was postponed indefinitely. Verbal and physical in Abyei (between the largely pro-secession Ngok Dinka farmers and the largely pro-unity Misseriya Arab pastoralists) punctuated the voting earlier this month.
Now that the voting is over, remains a 鈥減otential tinderbox.鈥�
On the southern side, the secretary general of the ruling party, the Southern People鈥檚 Liberation Movement (SPLM), Pagan Amum, has said that if the Abyei referendum is not conducted, the only remaining option is for Abyei to be transferred to the south by presidential decree. On the northern side, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has said he will not accept Abyei being part of the south.
The Ngok Dinka say they fear that if they do not make their declaration before the votes are counted in the southern referendum, they will miss their chance to join the south.
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The Ngok Dinka were ready to make their declaration before voting started on Jan. 9. But two high-level officials from the SPLM persuaded them to hold off.
The officials said a declaration before the referendum would give the north 鈥渁n excuse to disrupt鈥� the vote, said Juac Agok, deputy chairman of the SPLM in Abyei.
The SPLM is now asking them to wait until after July 9, when southern independence would formally begin.
But Agok said, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it will be possible for me to convince the people of Abyei to wait.鈥�
The seriousness of the situation in Abyei is so great that calls it 鈥渢he key to South Sudan['s] stability.鈥� Without a solution that both governments and the people of Abyei can accept, violence may escalate.
2. Oil
Oil is the primary driver of Sudan鈥檚 economy. The says, 鈥淚n 2009, according to the , oil represented over 90 percent of export earnings. For South Sudan (Juba), oil represented 98 percent of total revenues for the year compared to Khartoum at 65 percent.鈥� The Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 (which provided for the referendum) established a 50-50 revenue-sharing agreement between North and South, but now the two countries will have to negotiate a new agreement on revenues. Addressing issues like transparency, a released in early January , will be key to establishing trust and peace between North and South, who must rely on each other when it comes to oil: Three-quarters of the oil is in the South, but the North has the pipelines and refineries.
In addition to this challenge, when it comes to oil revenues: accusations of government corruption and continued poverty in the midst of rising government income threaten to increase public discontent with the Government of South Sudan. has led to income inequality and a sense of chaos in Juba. South Sudan will have to use oil revenues carefully in achieving development and building a unified society.
3. Integration and Citizenship
Who is a citizen in South Sudan? With refugees and members of the diaspora returning from near and far, and with everyone in the new country pondering its political future, South Sudan will need to develop a basis for national integration, citizenship, and unity that relies on more than just opposition to the North. captures this problem poignantly:
A Southern Sudanese told me that 鈥渢he referendum is the only thing that united us southerners.鈥� He believes that one of the hardest tasks of the southern government in the coming years will be to create the idea of being a Southern Sudanese citizen鈥攁n idea that will arguably be foreign to many ofthese citizens.
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After my friend made the above comment, he proceeded to give me an extensive history lesson on 鈥渢he struggle,鈥� speaking with pride and deep knowledge about the causes of the south鈥檚 two post-independence rebellions against regimes in Khartoum. He drew upon stories of battles fought in areas of the south that he has never visited but that appear vividly in his oral retelling of years of bloody conflict that eventually led to the south gaining the chance to decide its own destiny in a self-determination vote.
If this isn鈥檛 pride for a nation and in a group of people than I don鈥檛 know what is.
But the new Southern Sudan will be about more than the struggle of the past, and it will be a new struggle for the new country鈥檚 leaders to forge a path that includes not only those groups who fought in the war but also those people who were born in refugee camps in East Africa, who grew up in Nebraska, who studied at Oxford and who drive motorcycle taxis in Juba.
Picking the country鈥檚 (it may well remain 鈥淪outh Sudan鈥�), national anthem, flag, and emblem is a first step, but crafting national unity and integrating newcomers will take a long time.
4. Political Reform
This point is related to the last point. Along with building a sense of one nation, South Sudan will face the challenge of allowing multiple voices to speak. South Sudan will face international and internal pressures to move beyond the one-party model that allows the Sudan People鈥檚 Liberation Movement (SPLM) to dominate. The International Crisis Group鈥檚 ably explains the issue:
The rebel movement turned governing party 鈥� the Sudan People鈥檚 Liberation Movement 鈥� dominates the political arena. Since the end of the war, opposition voices have suppressed grievances and taken a back seat to the SPLM so as to preserve the goal shared by all southerners 鈥� self-determination. But now that the vote has been cast, that common denominator is gone. When the jubilation of last week鈥檚 vote subsides, the political environment will slowly begin to transform. The current leadership must respond accordingly, recognizing that a genuine opening of political space is both necessary and in their long-term interest. They must find a way to equitably manage the South鈥檚 own diversity, lest they simply duplicate the sort of autocratic regime they鈥檝e finally managed to escape.
Allowing political pluralism means more than just who wins at the ballot box 鈥� it also means addressing (h/t ), managing dissent, and promoting positive relations between ethnic groups. None of that will be easy.
5. Development
South Sudan鈥檚 development challenges are wide-ranging and stark. A from 2010 puts South Sudan鈥檚 predicament bluntly: 鈥淏y many yardsticks, it is the least-developed place on earth: 70 percent of its people have no access to any form of healthcare, one in five women die in childbirth and one in five children fail to make it to their fifth birthday.鈥� provides alarming statistics on education, disease, sustainability, and other issues in South Sudan. These problems are not just economic 鈥� they also threaten to . The worst outcome, as says, would be for South Sudan, burdened by economic crisis and political failure, to join the world鈥檚 failed states.
This list is not comprehensive, and I hope commenters will weigh in on these issues and others. What have I missed? What challenges do you see ahead for South Sudan?
鈥� Alex Thurston is a PhD student studying Islam in Africa at Northwestern University and blogs at .
