What鈥檚 driving renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea?
Ethiopia is accustomed to distinction. The country is one of only two in Africa never to have been colonized by Europeans, boasts the hottest inhabited place on Earth, and was the home of the earliest known human ancestor.
But there鈥檚 one superlative Ethiopia would rather not lay claim to. The country of 132 million people is the world鈥檚 most populous landlocked nation.
In recent weeks, this 鈥済eographical prison,鈥� as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dubbed it, has pushed Ethiopia dangerously close to violent conflict with its coastal neighbor Eritrea. Many Ethiopians want to access a slice of Eritrea鈥檚 sprawling coast 鈥� perhaps Assab, an underutilized southern port city that was once administered by Ethiopia. Eritreans, naturally, are opposed. (As of press time, there has been no direct fighting.)
Why We Wrote This
Many landlocked Ethiopians want a slice of their neighbor鈥檚 extensive coastline. Both sides have troops at the border. Is another conflict inevitable?
Both sides have amassed troops along their shared border, and at a military parade in February, Ethiopian soldiers stood at attention below a massive display in Amharic reading, 鈥淲hether they like it or not, we will not be landlocked.鈥澛�
Why is conflict brewing again between Ethiopia and Eritrea?聽
There are many factors, but a major one is that Ethiopia鈥檚 鈥渞ight鈥� to a coastline is a belief that unites people in an otherwise deeply fractured country, explains Yohannes Gedamu, a political scientist at Georgia Gwinnett College who studies Ethiopia.聽
At the moment, that kind of consensus is in short supply for Mr. Abiy鈥檚 government. His administration is facing rebellions in Ethiopia鈥檚 two most populous states 鈥� Oromia and Amhara 鈥� while also dealing with an unresolved civil war in the northern state of Tigray.聽
In that context, Mr. Abiy 鈥渘eeds a pan-Ethiopian narrative,鈥� Dr. Gedamu explains, and he has found one in the pursuit of a port.聽
鈥淓ven many people who very much politically oppose Abiy Ahmed are excited about this prospect of Ethiopia having access to the sea,鈥� he says.聽
Why is the prospect of coastal access attractive to Ethiopia?聽
For one thing, not having a coastline makes trade much more expensive and precarious for Ethiopia. Today, its trade mostly passes through tiny Djibouti, which Addis Ababa pays about聽$1.5 billion annually for port access.聽
Ethiopia鈥檚 government also says that the lack of a coastline keeps it from acting as a regional bulwark against instability in the Red Sea, one of the world鈥檚 most pivotal 鈥� and volatile 鈥� shipping corridors.聽
In this context, having a port is 鈥渘ot a matter of luxury,鈥� Mr. Abiy explained in 2023, but 鈥渆xistential.鈥澛�
The issue is also emotional. For centuries, Eritrea formed the coastal perimeter of the Ethiopian Empire. Then, in the 1890s, Ethiopia lost the territory to another empire seeking a toehold in the Red Sea: Italy.聽
After World War II, the United Nations made Eritrea an autonomous province under the rule of the Ethiopian king. But when Addis Ababa seized total control, Eritreans fought back. After a grueling three-decade civil war, Eritrea became independent in 1993.聽
That left Ethiopia once again without a coast. And when the two countries plunged into another war in the late 1990s, Ethiopia lost access to Eritrea鈥檚 ports entirely.聽
Today, the port city of Assab sits rusting and largely disused just 40 miles from the Ethiopian border, and many Ethiopians are convinced that ceding their entire coastline was a grave error.聽
鈥淭hat history was yesterday鈥檚 mistake,鈥� said Mr. Abiy in a speech last September. 鈥淭omorrow, it will be corrected.鈥�
Could Ethiopia get the coastal access it wants without going to war?聽
It鈥檚 hard to say, but one thing is clear: A war would be extraordinarily costly for both countries.
Between 2020 and 2022, Ethiopia and Eritrea fought together to extinguish a rebellion in Tigray. They won, but as many as 600,000 people died in what The New York Times termed 鈥渙ne of the world鈥檚 bloodiest contemporary conflicts.鈥澛�
Ethiopians and Eritreans 鈥渁re the last people who want to go to war,鈥� Dr. Gedamu says. 鈥淭hey know exactly how much it costs.鈥澛�
Their governments, however, may have other ideas. Both Eritrea and the government of Tigray felt sidelined by the negotiations ending the war there. Addis Ababa now says the Eritrean administration in Asmara is giving clandestine support to rebels in Tigray and other regions of Ethiopia, an accusation Eritrea denies.聽
Even if no side deliberately sets out to start a war, 鈥渢he danger is that a sudden move by any side could escalate at high speed,鈥� explained the International Crisis Group in a recent brief.聽
Meanwhile, while Mr. Abiy reiterated recently that his government has 鈥渘o intention of invading or attacking others,鈥� his actions have been less clear.聽
Take the 鈥渨e will not be landlocked鈥� message displayed at the military parade in February.聽
On one side of the text was a beaming portrait of Mr. Abiy. On the other was an Ethiopian soldier jump-kicking through a wall. Beyond the splintered barrier floated a massive ship with two words emblazoned on its hull: 鈥淎ssab Ethiopia."
