The West has united against Putin鈥檚 war. Not Africa.
| Johannesburg
When Linda John Selepe, a 68-year-old South African veteran, first saw images of Russian aircraft flying over Ukraine, he was immediately taken back to a time when he, too, had lived with Soviet-era bomber jets roaring overhead.聽
In the 1980s, barely out of his teens, Mr. Selepe took up arms in the struggle to overthrow South Africa鈥檚 white-minority government, spending years in bare-bones bush camps. There, he received training, weapons, and financial support from Moscow, which supported dozens of independence movements in Africa as part of their Cold War rivalry with the West.聽
鈥淭he only way we could survive 鈥� the only way we did survive 鈥� was the Russian aircraft coming to bomb鈥� enemy positions, Mr. Selepe says of his years as a guerrilla fighter operating from neighboring Angola, his voice still emotional four decades later.
Why We Wrote This
A significant number of African countries have refused to condemn Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine. Their reservations have roots in the colonial era 鈥� and in contemporary arms deals.
鈥淚 feel pity and sympathy for the civilians of Ukraine. But I fully support Putin鈥檚 actions in Ukraine, based on my history.鈥澛�
Such legacies are still playing out across the continent today, and help explain why many African states have been reluctant to publicly criticize Russia鈥檚 aggression in Ukraine.
African ambivalence was on show at a U.N. General Assembly meeting on March 2. An overwhelming majority of 141 nations voted in favor of a resolution demanding the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. But of the 35 countries that abstained from condemning Russia, 17 were from Africa. A further seven African representatives did not record a vote at all. Eritrea, a secretive rogue state in east Africa, joined Belarus, North Korea, Syria, and Russia in voting against the resolution.
鈥淢any African countries are sitting on the fence for a number of reasons,鈥� says Steven Gruzd, an expert on African governance and diplomacy at the South African Institute of International Affairs. They include 鈥渘ot wanting to become embroiled in a new Cold War, empathy with Russia and antipathy towards the West, and diplomatic and political calculations.鈥�
A counterbalance
U.N. General Assembly resolutions aren鈥檛 legally binding, but they do carry political weight 鈥� and the March 2 vote sent important signals about a shifting international order.聽
Russia has been quietly strengthening ties with African states in recent years, particularly on the military front. Military leaders from the Central African Republic, Mali, Guinea, and Sudan, among others, have invited Russian mercenaries to tackle unrest, often despite already receiving military or economic aid from the West.聽
The Central African Republic has said it planned to make Russian language classes compulsory for all undergraduates. Supporters of a military coup in Burkina Faso earlier this year brandished Russian flags.
And, on the day Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, South Africa鈥檚 minister of defense attended an official cocktail party at the Russian embassy celebrating Russian Motherland Defenders鈥� Day.聽
鈥淭here鈥檚 an element of supporting Russia as a counterbalance to what is seen as American hegemony or hypocrisy on a range of issues,鈥� says a former Nigerian government adviser.
Such issues range from a lack of U.S. accountability over its invasion of Iraq to meddling in local politics, the adviser says. 鈥淎merica has taken on a caricature of decadence, immorality, hypocrisy, an international bully. Russia, by contrast, through savvy media manipulation, appears as the underdog.鈥澛�
That view is also popular in southern Africa. 鈥淶imbabweans have been victims of unilateral sanctions for over 20 years and would not wish this on anyone,鈥� Zimbabwe鈥檚 foreign minister said, in a statement explaining why the country had abstained from criticizing Russia.聽
Guns and nukes
But some of the fence-sitting is down to hard-nosed realpolitik.聽
Russia鈥檚 strategy on the continent involves pursuing deals with elites, rather than states, points out Joseph Siegle, director of research at the U.S. Defense Department鈥檚 Africa Center for Strategic Studies. 鈥淏y helping these often illegitimate and unpopular leaders to retain power, Russia is cementing Africa鈥檚 indebtedness to Moscow,鈥� he notes.聽
And although Russia鈥檚 overall trade with Africa is minuscule, Moscow is the continent鈥檚 biggest arms supplier, in a market where Western manufacturers are constrained by human rights concerns. Russia is threatening 鈥渦nfriendly countries鈥� with sanctions, and African leaders 鈥渄on鈥檛 want to cut off that access to Russian armaments,鈥� says the Nigerian official, who asked to remain anonymous because he is not authorized to speak to the press.
Russia鈥檚 attempt to leverage the legacy of Soviet-era ties played out in a particularly unusual way in South Africa, the continent鈥檚 most developed nation.聽聽
鈥淩ussia has always seen South Africa as a gateway to expand influence in the West more broadly,鈥� says David Fig, an environmental sociologist at the University of Cape Town who has written about Russian energy geopolitics.聽鈥淥ne of the ways it seeks to do that is through clandestine relationships supporting [South Africa鈥檚] energy infrastructure.鈥�
That came to a head under Jacob Zuma, the outspoken former president who reportedly received training in the Soviet Union during the apartheid years. In 2015, Mr. Zuma attempted to sign an unconstitutional $76 billion deal with Rosatom, the nuclear power company controlled by a Kremlin oversight board, to build a number of nuclear power stations.聽
The proposal made no economic sense to technocrats at Rosatom, but Mr. Putin lobbied for it on geopolitical grounds, a report released by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace later concluded. Mr. Zuma himself fired three finance ministers in four days because they refused to sign off on the highly secretive pact. The deal was eventually scuppered by South African courts in April 2017.
Understanding Putin
As Ukrainian civilian casualties mount, and evidence suggesting Russian war crimes comes to light, will hesitant African states speak out more forcefully against Russia?聽
That is unlikely, predicts Linda Chisholm, a professor at the University of Johannesburg, who has written about how the Cold War is taught and interpreted in South Africa. 鈥淚f anything, I think positions are hardening,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 think sides are chosen in terms of local politics, so positions on Russia and Ukraine become a tool in local politics to define where you stand.鈥澛�
Russia is not the Soviet Union, nor does it offer any ideological message today. But among some people, such as Mr. Selepe, old loyalties die hard.
For Mr. Selepe, the former guerrilla fighter, the bombed out ruins of apartment blocks in Ukraine tell only one side of the story.聽聽
Still affectionately referred to by his guerrilla alias, 鈥淪poro,鈥� meaning 鈥渞ailway,鈥� in Zulu, Mr. Selepe was born in 1963, at a time when the Soviet Union was almost the only country willing to offer extended support to those fighting in the anti-apartheid struggle.聽
Mr. Selepe spent four years in bush camps, transporting supplies to cadres, carrying out cross-border raids and escaping ambushes launched by proxy militias. In 1987, he was flown to the Soviet republic of Kirghizia, where he spent another four years learning how to fly jets in preparation for an existential battle back home.聽
鈥淔or me personally, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, it is Russia, and Moscow is the head,鈥� Mr. Selepe says. 鈥淲hatever happened with all these countries that got their independence, it didn鈥檛 change my attitude and belief in the Russian people.鈥澛�
Shortly after he returned to Africa, apartheid collapsed, in 1994. Mr. Selepe was integrated into a South African air force that was racially mixed for the first time. His training abroad, he says, meant he had more knowledge and skills than many of the white officers who had once been his sworn enemies.
Almost every Sunday morning since the war broke out, Mr. Selepe has left his home in a tidy Johannesburg suburb, turned a corner, then walked a few hundred yards until he reaches a gold-domed Russian Orthodox church. There, he says, he nods along to the liturgy, delivered entirely in Russian, and offers prayers for both Russian and Ukrainian citizens.聽
Returning home, he settles down to watch the relentless news from Ukraine. 鈥淲hen Putin is speaking on television,鈥� he says, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 read the captions. I just follow what he鈥檚 saying. I understand all of it.鈥澛�
