海角大神

Six months after Robert Mugabe coasted to victory in Zimbabwe鈥檚 hotly disputed July presidential election, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai used a holiday reference to describe the policies of his rival: Grinch-like.

"It is clear the current government stole Christmas from Zimbabweans,鈥� the former prime minister said. "The nation is in a dire state."

Mr. Tsvangirai鈥檚 prognosis has some data points: Zimbabwe鈥檚 economy is slipping, with more than 700 firms shutting down last year and unemployment at 80 percent. Foreign-owned businesses are in jeopardy. And international human rights watchdogs are pointing to an unhealthy water and sanitation conditions in the capital, Harare.聽

But Tsvangirai and his opposition party are no longer sharing power with Mugabe, one of Africa鈥檚 more controversial leaders. Instead, they are fighting for their political life amid accusations they did too little to improve the country during their five years sharing power.

There are questions about whether Tsavangirai, for many years a figure of heroic stature and resistance to authoritarianism, is in permanent eclipse.

The opposition faces the opprobrium of the new government: Zimbabwe鈥檚 ambassador to Australia,聽Jacqueline Zwambila, a Tsvangirai nominee, recently asked for asylum on grounds that she feared for her life if she returned to Zimbabwe. She was recalled for conduct 鈥渦nfit for a diplomat,鈥� which she says is code for participation in the opposition.

Meanwhile, Mugabe鈥檚 government has soldiered forward with a plan to 鈥渋ndigenize鈥� local business by banning foreigners from owning a majority stake in several sectors.

Officials now say that from Jan. 1 of this year, foreigners will not be issued licenses in estate agencies, grain mills, retail outlets, milk processing plants, transport and valet services. Indigenization聽Minister Francis Nhema聽announced last week that foreign-owned businesses must close within five years.

Replacing white elites

For his part, Tsvangirai told the Monitor in a recent interview in Oxford, UK that Mugabe鈥檚 indigenization policies were simple cronyism, amounting to little more than 鈥渁n exercise in replacing a few white elites with a few black elites.鈥�

But if Zimbabwe鈥檚 wobbly political course has inspired outrage from many corners of Zimbabwean civil society, it has largely failed to reinvigorate Tsvangirai or his opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

The MDC hobbled out of 2013 disgraced not only by its defeat in the election, but also by internal squabbling and accusations of corruption. Tsvangirai's estranged wife is writing a book on him that is expected to dish more dirt.聽

鈥淭he MDC are very good at describing the problems in Zimbabwe,鈥� says Phillan Zamchiya, an expert on Zimbabwean politics at the University of Oxford. 鈥淎nd once they describe a problem, they can run a very strong election campaign around it. But they鈥檙e much weaker on thinking up solid alternatives."

In fact, he says, the MDC has lost much of its sheen over the last five years, as the party transitioned from serving as the mouthpiece for the disenfranchised to actually participating in the gritty business of governing.

While the MDC鈥檚 Tendai Biti 鈥� who served as finance minister during the unity government 鈥� is credited for stabilizing Zimbabwe鈥檚 runaway inflation, the party failed to provide a convincing overall alternative to Mugabe鈥檚 long rule, Mr. Zamchiya says.

For Zamchiya, there are 鈥渢wo Morgan Tsvangirais.鈥� One of them is an electrifying campaigner and former union leader with an instinct for winning crowds and filling stadiums. The other is the man who 鈥渟truggles to communicate consistently and logically鈥� in boardrooms and closed-door meetings.聽

Indeed, a survey conducted by Freedom House in 2012 found that Tsvangirai鈥檚 support among Zimbabweans dropped from 38 to 20 percent over the course of his stint as prime minister.

New blood

鈥淚 respect and admire him for his achievements so far in the struggle for change in the country,鈥� wrote MDC supporter Wisdom Katungu in the independent newspaper New Zimbabwe. 鈥淗owever鈥�. after his heavy defeat in the recent elections 鈥� the man needs to step aside and let new blood take the party to the Promised Land.鈥�

But Tsvangirai has given no intention that he intends to give up his place at the helm of the MDC, which he has led since its founding 15 years ago.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think that I鈥檝e faltered. I鈥檝e never faltered,鈥� he says. 鈥淚 think people still have confidence in my leadership.鈥�

After July's election, which was declared 鈥渇ree but not fair鈥� by international observers, the MDC filed a legal challenge in Zimbabwe鈥檚 Constitutional Court challenging the results. They withdrew the case, however, when the government refused to turn over evidence.

Tsvangirai says, however, that he intends to keep fighting.

鈥淚鈥檝e faced a lot of personal torment from [Mugabe],鈥� Tsvangirai says. 鈥淚鈥檝e been arrested, I鈥檝e been charged with treason, I鈥檝e been battered 鈥� but you know what? 鈥� Democratic struggle isn鈥檛 an event. It鈥檚 always a process. This is only a setback. Democratic change has been delayed but it has not been abandoned.鈥�