海角大神

In Sudan鈥檚 western Darfur province, where the war is now a decade old, fresh fighting has forced more people from their homes since January than in the last two years combined.聽

To the south, in the states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, civilians cower in caves cut off from international aid as military planes, sent by their own government, bomb their fields and villages. The air force is ostensibly hunting for rebels.聽

These are actions allegedly carried out in the last few weeks on the orders of Sudan鈥檚 President Omar al-Bashir, a fugitive from international charges of crimes against humanity and genocide.

So why, activists and campaigners working on Sudan are asking, is the West and especially President Obama鈥檚 administration seemingly moving towards an ever closer engagement with Mr. Bashir鈥檚 government?聽

Germany, in a break from the European Union鈥檚 official cold-shouldering of Sudan, held an international conference in Berlin in January to encourage global investment in the country.

In May, Valerie Amos, the United Nations鈥� humanitarian affairs coordinator, met Bashir in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, in an unsuccessful bid to have aid blockades lifted.

Days later, in Ethiopia, US Secretary of State John Kerry held extended talks with Ali Karti, Bashir鈥檚 Foreign Minister, not long after he was courted by the British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, during a visit to London.

Perhaps most controversially, Mr. Kerry has invited a delegation of senior officials from Bashir鈥檚 ruling National Congress Party (NCP) to Washington.聽
On the list is Nafie Ali Nafie, a Bashir adviser and head of internal intelligence when Sudan hosted Osama bin Laden in the early 1990s, and a man with 鈥渂lood on his hands,鈥� according to Sudanese activist group Girifna.

'Normalizing' relations?

Many have questioned what appears to be a move towards 鈥渘ormalization of relations鈥� with Sudan, as the term is known in diplomatic circles.

Most recently a question came from the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Fatou Bensouda, in a June 5 briefing to the UN Security Council on the continuing crisis in Darfur. So far this year, 300,000 people have fled their homes there, she said.

鈥淢y Office shares the concerns of this Council that business relations with the Sudan, if not monitored carefully, could have the effect of facilitating, funding and supporting crimes against civilians,鈥� she told the Council鈥檚 members.

鈥淣ormalization of relations with the Sudan should not come at such a high price to victims.鈥�

Amnesty International, in a report June 12 accusing Bashir鈥檚 government of war crimes in Blue Nile state, criticized the UN and 鈥渋nfluential states鈥� of showing 鈥渘o great eagerness鈥� in their pursuit of justice for victims.

鈥淭he ongoing violations in Blue Nile demonstrate yet again that it is civilians who pay the price when impunity for war crimes goes unchecked,鈥� Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, the author of the Amnesty report, said in a statement.

The West鈥檚 desire to remain influential in a region that is increasingly looking to the Gulf and the Pacific rim, and the West's yearning for sustained peace between Sudan and South Sudan, are the reasons why Bashir鈥檚 arrest warrant remains unserved, and why his allies are guests of Western politicians, activists and analysts say.

Ahmed Soliman, an Africa analyst at the Chatham House think tank in Britain, says that any efforts to engage with senior ruling party officials may be happening with an eye to Sudan after Bashir鈥檚 rule is over.

The 68-year-old president has been in the hospital twice in the past year and has reportedly cut back on official engagements. He has promised to step down in 2015.

鈥淎ny moves to normalize relations with the NCP may be to attempt to increase future influence there because of the strategic importance of Sudan and South Sudan,鈥� Mr. Soliman says.

鈥淚t indicates the international community鈥檚 concerns over the trajectory of the country if Bashir goes and leaves behind a vacuum.鈥�

Fragile peace

The root fear is a return to conflict between Sudan and South Sudan.

The two countries were one until 2011, when they agreed to split under a 2005 peace treaty, part-brokered by the US, that ended their 22-year civil war.

鈥淓verything the West does, or doesn鈥檛 do, is seen through the lens of stabilizing South Sudan,鈥� says Dismas Nkunda, co-chair of the Sudan Consortium, a coalition of 60 civil society organizations.

鈥淕lobal diplomatic efforts are so focused on that that they seem willing to turn essentially a blind eye to what Bashir is up to in other parts of Sudan," says Nkunda. 鈥淭hat is the distinction between geopolitics and demands for justice.鈥�

Nonetheless, the supposed peace between the former foes is wobbling amid repeated accusations of armed incursions into each other鈥檚 territories and alleged South Sudanese support for rebels in Sudan, which it denies.

Oil that should flow between the two countries, and feed their national wealth, is stalled amid arguments over sharing the bounty.

But by signing occasional agreements pulling back from outright conflict, Bashir 鈥済ives the West the impression of progress,鈥� according to another international campaigner on Sudanese politics.

鈥淭here are those who swallow this propaganda and say that because there is some improvement, now is the time to engage more,鈥� she says, refusing to be named because her comments may affect her ability to work in Sudan.

鈥淭his is why you get this bizarre two-track approach from the US. On one side, it leads with strongly worded resolutions [at the UN] condemning Bashir. And on the other, you have Kerry inviting Nafie Ali Nafie to Washington.鈥�

Still, it is risky to reward the Sudanese regime with investment conferences and welcomes to Western capitals, says Nico Plooijer, program manager for IKV Pax Christi, an international church-based peace organization.

鈥淏ashir and his allies don鈥檛 seem to see that they are doing anything wrong in Darfur, in Blue Nile, in Southern Kordofan,鈥� says Mr. Plooijer.

鈥淭o me it makes no sense to politically engage with a government that continues to bomb its own people. It鈥檚 like providing a bully with the incentive to continue, and I think it strengthens them. That is the gamble that is being taken.鈥澛�