Biden in Saudi Arabia: The strategy behind 鈥榤aking nice鈥�
-
Ned Temko Columnist
| London
It鈥檚 a maxim coined by Joe Biden a dozen years ago, when he was still vice president. But it might just as well be emblazoned on Air Force One as he embarks on his first presidential visit to the Middle East: 鈥淟ife is a matter of really tough choices.鈥�
Back then, he was talking about a political trade-off on tax-cut legislation. Now, however, he鈥檚 had to face a much tougher choice on a larger stage: a world seismically jolted by Russian President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
The result: an even more difficult, and controversial, trade-off. It鈥檚 between the emphasis on democracy and human rights he has placed at the core of his foreign policy, and his campaign to build and sustain international support to isolate Mr. Putin and deny him victory.
Why We Wrote This
The Biden administration put human rights at the center of its foreign policy. Now its commitment to keeping those at the fore is being tested in a world badly jolted by Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine.
The latest, and starkest, sign is this week鈥檚 Middle East mission.
The three-day trip is already being criticized as a jettisoning of his human rights agenda to secure an easing of world oil supplies. But the administration insists Mr. Biden will still raise human rights concerns in his meetings. And it is stressing the importance of strengthening America鈥檚 regional security partnerships in response to what it sees as the longer-term threat to democratic values represented by the Russian invasion.
The core of the controversy surrounding the visit is a scheduled meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a man U.S. intelligence has blamed for the 2018 killing and dismemberment of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. He鈥檚 also a man Mr. Biden vowed to treat as a 鈥減ariah,鈥� and to whom he鈥檇 not even spoken until the Ukraine war.
But MBS, as he鈥檚 known, also runs the Arab world鈥檚 leading oil-producing state. And he鈥檚 rebuffed American requests to bring millions more barrels onto the world market in order to alleviate the Ukraine-related shortages that are driving up pump prices, stoking inflation, and potentially weakening international support for the sanctions regime against Mr. Putin.
So on the face of it, President Biden is indeed swapping principle for oil.
That鈥檚 certainly the view of a growing chorus of critics: other Saudi dissidents, human rights groups, unhappy members of his own party, and newspapers including The Washington Post, for whom Mr. Khashoggi, who was a U.S. resident, wrote opinion columns.
But the MBS meeting, assuming it goes ahead, is also part of a wider picture, and a more complex conundrum: the 鈥渞eally tough challenges鈥� that are simply inevitable in responding to an international crisis on the scale of the Ukraine war.
The toughest call of all
On a personal level, Mr. Biden will have found the Saudi visit the toughest call of all. The 鈥減ariah鈥� pledge was made on the campaign trail, but he clearly felt genuine abhorrence over the Khashoggi killing. He directed all presidential communications with Saudi Arabia through its aging, ailing King Salman, instead of MBS. And within days of his inauguration, he declassified the CIA report personally linking the crown prince to the killing.
The decision to meet MBS will have been made no easier by the crown prince鈥檚 response to Mr. Biden鈥檚 freeze.聽聽
鈥淪imply, I do not care,鈥� MBS told an interviewer earlier this year.
But oil, if the prime catalyst, would not have been Mr. Biden鈥檚 only one.
The broader geopolitical implications of Mr. Putin鈥檚 invasion loom large. Years of American military involvement in the Middle East have now shrunken to a far smaller presence, with no domestic appetite for reengagement. Besides, the United States is finding it difficult enough to balance its security imperatives in post-invasion Europe with its response to the growing power of China.
With both Russia and China expanding their influence in the region, the U.S. needs to shore up its alliances with other Middle East states 鈥� not just Israel, but the growing number of Gulf Arab states, Saudi Arabia among them, moving toward entente with the Israelis as a result of their shared interest in restraining Iran.
And the 鈥渢ough choices鈥� as a result of the Ukraine war are not limited to the Middle East.
In Europe, the 鈥渋lliberal democracy鈥� of Poland has become a critical NATO ally, both in welcoming Ukrainian refugees and helping Kyiv push back against the Russian invasion force. Turkey, whose President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an has imprisoned thousands of critics, has become essential to any potential arrangement to unblock Black Sea export routes for Ukrainian wheat 鈥� as well as for the required unanimous approval to welcome new members Sweden and Finland into NATO.
The administration has also felt the need to avoid a full-on political clash with key Asian powers 鈥� India, and China too 鈥� that have been cushioning the effect of the Russia sanctions by buying Russian oil. The concern has been to prevent them from more actively undermining Western sanctions and, in China鈥檚 case, helping shore up Mr. Putin鈥檚 military machine.
Put differently, the 鈥渞eally tough choices鈥� have led to a recognition that, with the overriding priority of confronting Russia鈥檚 invasion, making nice isn鈥檛 only for close friends.
The key question now is whether the downplaying of human rights and democracy concerns that have been central to Mr. Biden鈥檚 message, even if in clear response to Ukraine policy considerations, may weaken America鈥檚 ability to make that case in the longer run.
In a strongly worded article on the eve of Mr. Biden鈥檚 departure for the Middle East, the publisher of The Washington Post argued that his U-turn on MBS wouldn鈥檛 only 鈥渆rode our moral authority鈥� but also 鈥渂reed anti-American resentment鈥� and 鈥渃ommunicate to democracy activists and reform-minded governments worldwide that Washington is an unreliable partner.鈥�
President Biden鈥檚 evident belief 鈥� and certainly his hope 鈥� is that the choices his administration is making will lead to success in what he鈥檚 termed a broader international struggle between democracy and autocracy, by consigning Mr. Putin鈥檚 invasion to failure.
So not only are the choices really tough. The stakes are really high.
