Will submarine rift sap Europe鈥檚 support for US policy on China?
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Ned Temko Correspondent
| London
First came the verbal brickbats, accusations of 鈥渓ying, duplicity 鈥� treachery!鈥� Then the dramatic recall of an ambassador from Washington.
Yet it wasn鈥檛 the pace, nor even the passion, of last week鈥檚 d茅marche against the United States that was most extraordinary. It was the source.
It didn鈥檛 come from a rival such as Russia or China, but from America鈥檚 oldest international ally, France. Ties with Europe are already strained; this new diplomatic firestorm risks opening even deeper fissures in the transatlantic alliance 鈥� the bedrock of U.S. foreign policy for more than seven decades.
Why We Wrote This
Europeans, slighted by Washington鈥檚 recent cavalier treatment, are pondering a more independent foreign policy path. That could mean less international backing for President Biden鈥檚 tough line on China.
France is not the only European Union member of NATO to be asking itself whether the old continent can rely on Washington with the same certainty as before. And the doubters are now wondering whether they should adopt a more independent tack on their own security, and on key foreign policy issues like China, rather than let America take the lead.
The spark for the latest tension was the announcement of a new alliance 鈥� dubbed AUKUS 鈥� under which the U.S. and Britain will provide nuclear-powered submarines to Australia and jointly develop other high-tech military and intelligence tools for deployment in the Indo-Pacific region.
That meant the summary cancellation of a deal between the Australians and the French, for conventional, diesel-powered submarines. In practical terms, France lost nearly $66 billion in business, and many of the jobs relying on it.
But it wasn鈥檛 just those issues that provoked France鈥檚 fury 鈥� and the first withdrawal of its chief envoy to Washington since the French sided with the American Colonies in the Revolutionary War.
Rather, it was the听尘补苍苍别谤 in which the rebuff was delivered 鈥� a 鈥渟tab in the back,鈥� Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called it. AUKUS emerged from months of top-secret negotiations that kept Paris in the dark. France first heard of the deal from Australia, hours before the formal White House announcement last Wednesday, and after the news had leaked in the news media.
The EU wasn鈥檛 given notice either. Nor, it appears, was NATO. And that struck an especially raw nerve: EU states and NATO鈥檚 European members are still smarting from being left out of the loop on last month鈥檚 rapid U.S. withdrawal from Kabul, Afghanistan.
The overall effect has been to gut the initial view in European capitals that President Joe Biden would quickly repair the transatlantic bonds that President Donald Trump had so denigrated. 鈥淭his brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr. Trump used to do,鈥� Mr. Le Drian declared.
The hope in the U.S. is that France鈥檚 anger will gradually subside. Mr. Biden called President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday and the two men agreed to "open a process of in-depth consultations, aimed at creating the conditions for ensuring confidence."
But the substance behind AUKUS is likely to prove tougher to finesse: a new, Anglo-Saxon security alliance whose European member has chosen to leave the EU, aimed clearly at China. And China is now Washington鈥檚 absolute foreign-policy priority, whatever Europeans may think about that.
For Mr. Macron, the logical European response is clear. He has long been pressing EU colleagues to forge greater 鈥渟trategic autonomy鈥� from the Americans. During the Trump years, he went so far as to pronounce NATO 鈥渂rain-dead鈥� 鈥� a remark he recanted during Europe鈥檚 early diplomatic honeymoon with the Biden administration.
His argument has been gradually gaining support among some other EU states. It will have been strengthened by the way the U.S. sidelined the Europeans in Afghanistan, and by AUKUS.
But there鈥檚 a major caveat: 鈥渟trategic autonomy鈥� costs money. It means a commitment to far higher defense spending than most European countries have so far been ready to countenance. And it鈥檚 worth noting that no other European leaders have rushed to echo Paris鈥� angry denunciations of Washington over AUKUS.
But that does not necessarily mean that they are ready to follow what Mr. Le Drian calls the 鈥渉ighly confrontational orientation鈥� toward Beijing that Washington has adopted, especially since the EU had been working on its own strategic plan for the Indo-Pacific region, which it unveiled last week.
鈥淲e regret not having been informed鈥� about AUKUS, said the EU鈥檚 foreign policy and security commissioner, Josep Borrell. 鈥淲e must survive on our own, as others do,鈥� he added.
France itself is already a key player in the Indo-Pacific, home to some 1.6 million of its citizens in overseas territories defended by 8,000 soldiers and a naval force, including nuclear submarines.
The EU document set out plans for possible naval deployments by member states to 鈥渉elp protect maritime lines of communication and freedom of navigation,鈥� a veiled reference to stymieing Chinese maritime ambitions.
But the plan鈥檚 tone and emphasis were markedly different from Washington鈥檚 increasingly tough stance toward China 鈥� in part, perhaps, because EU states may be more reluctant to risk their valuable trade and investment ties with Beijing.
As President Biden seeks to rally allies into a democratic front against autocratic leaders such as Xi Jinping, Europe鈥檚 overall aim, said Mr. Borrell, was 鈥渃ooperation, not confrontation.鈥�
