Grimm race: What if Democrats can't oust GOP incumbent facing 20 indictments?
Despite听facing 20 federal indictments,听Rep. Michael Grimm (R) of New York is still a narrow favorite to retain his seat in New York's 11th听District 鈥� an indicator of just how tough next month's election could be for House Democrats.听
In a midterm election season defined by intense focus on a handful of tight races,听the contest for听Congressman听Grimm's seat听looked like听a layup for Democrats 鈥� one of the few they could count on in their bid听to put a dent in expected GOP gains in 2014 and听take back the House in 2016.
Instead, they've had to funnel听more than听$1 million into the campaign of Democratic challenger听Domenic Recchia, even though the embattled GOP incumbent听has been largely abandoned by Republican campaign committees and fundraisers.
A few months ago Grimm, a former Marine and FBI agent, looked dead in the water. News of a federal investigation into Grimm's campaign finances surfaced in January. After being听surprised by a question about it in a live TV interview, the congressman threaten to throw the听reporter off a balcony and "break [him] in half. Like a boy," while the camera听. In April, Grimm was indicted on federal charges that he hired undocumented immigrants at a Manhattan health-food restaurant he used to own, then lied about it to federal investigators.听In all, Grimm faces 20 charges, including wire fraud, filing false tax returns, hiring听undocumented workers,听and perjury.
Moreover,听Recchia has significantly out-paced Grimm听in campaign funding, with Democrats recently doubling down on one of the few tight races they think they can win this election. The Democratic campaign committee has spent $1.3 million on cable television ads since Aug. 12.听
The Republican campaign committee appears to have mostly given up on Grimm, however, but help from outside funders, including $100,000 from moderate Republican super PAC听,听has kept the Republican in the race.
The latest polls show Grimm with听听in a district that comprises all of Staten Island 鈥� a Republican stronghold in an iconic liberal city听鈥� and a sliver of southern Brooklyn.听The main reason appears to be that, despite Grimm's personal troubles and his own stronger fundraising effort, Mr. Recchia has repeatedly shot himself in the foot.
Grimm is also a seasoned and skilled politician. He has framed Recchia's focus on his legal travails听as a way to distract from more important national issues. He also uses his deep Staten Island roots against Recchia, a former New York City councilman听from Brooklyn.
"National Democrats have spent millions upon millions of dollars to make it about anything but the issues," Grimm told a crowd at听听in Staten Island, according to The New York Times. When asked about his balcony-tossing听tiff with听a journalist听at a debate in Brooklyn on Oct. 1, Grimm replied, "As a Staten Islander, sometimes I get my Italian up," the Times reported.
Recchia, meanwhile, has been unable to take advantage of听Grimm's woes, because he was making so many missteps of his own. To back up his own claims to "great knowledge" of foreign policy, he noted a student-exchange program with Japan he once ran in Grimm's district, as well as his visits to Italy, Israel and "many, many countries." When he voiced opposition to the proposed TPP trade agreement 鈥� the Trans-Pacific Partnership, currently being negotiated between the US, Australia, and Asian and South American countries 鈥� he appeared at a loss to explain what the letters TPP stood for.听
The series of campaign missteps eventually provoked a skewering on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" earlier this week.
Perhaps the biggest irony in an increasingly combative and toxic race is that Grimm听may wind up winning the race, only to leverage his victory to bargain for a lesser sentence.听Grimm's trial is set for December, a month after the election, and politicians听facing federal prosecution听in the past听have offered their resignation in exchange for lighter sentences.
Noting such a possibility, Grimm tells voters that they听should stick with him, if only so they can elect someone else in a future special election, should he resign 鈥� someone, at least, who isn't Recchia. Indeed, Republicans have already begun floating names for听听in 2015, according to The Staten Island Advance.
"If things don't go my way ... and I had to step down in January, then there will be a special election, and at least the people of Staten Island and southern Brooklyn can then have qualified candidates to choose from," Grimm听听this month.
