Did Mitt Romney steal Maine caucuses from Ron Paul?
Did the GOP establishment steal the Maine caucuses away from Ron Paul? That鈥檚 what some Paul supporters are grumbling this morning. They suspect that another Republican campaign conspired with the Maine state GOP to suppress Representative Paul鈥檚 vote.
That other Republican campaign is Mitt Romney's, though the Paul campaign is not saying so directly. But who else is the establishment backing at the moment? If you think it's Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich, we've got a moon base we'd like to sell you. It's cheap 鈥� and statehood's impending!
Here鈥檚 the Paul camp鈥檚 thinking: On Saturday, Maine GOP chairman Charlie Webster announced that Mr. Romney had won the statewide caucus presidential preference poll with 2,190 votes, or 39 percent. Paul, the only other candidate to seriously contest the Pine Tree state, came in second with 1,996 votes, or 36 percent.
Romney claimed victory, but Paul did not concede. His supporters point out that the preference poll is not yet finished. Among other things, the caucus for Washington County, scheduled for Saturday, was cancelled due to the threat of inclement weather. The conspiracy theory holds that 鈥渟now鈥� was just an excuse, and that the real reason they pulled the shades down was fear of a Paul victory.
Washington County鈥檚 votes , claimed Paul鈥檚 campaign manager John Tate in an e-mail to supporters.
鈥淭he caucus was delayed until next week just so the votes wouldn鈥檛 be reported by the national media,鈥� charged Mr. Tate.
Who are the conspirators here, according to the Paul team? The 鈥淕OP establishment and their pals in the national media, [who] will do anything to silence our message of liberty,鈥� said Tate.
Hmmm. Perhaps we didn鈥檛 get that message from our overlord Bret Baier. But we do have this to say about the alleged caucus theft:
First, these people have never been to Washington County in the winter. It鈥檚 the far northeastern part of Maine, so far up that Portland might as well be Miami. We have been there in January, and it was so cold ice formed on the car windows as we drove. The inside of the car windows.
Also, the roads in Washington County are narrow and slippery at best. Read the Bangor Daily News 鈥� the two-car head-on collision is a staple of winter coverage. We鈥檙e not going to question anybody鈥檚 weather-related call up there.
That said, it鈥檚 also unlikely that Washington County鈥檚 votes would have thrown the preference poll Paul鈥檚 way. The invaluable polling analyst Nate Silver at the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog points out that in 2008 fewer people participated in the Washington County GOP caucus than the current gap between Romney and Paul. So even if Paul won 100 percent of that turnout, .
Of course, given the spotlight now shining on the county, it鈥檚 possible Paul supporters will pile in when the caucus is actually held, inflating the numbers. We鈥檒l have to wait and see.
But the real bottom line is this: The presidential preference poll held at Maine caucuses does not matter. It has no influence on the allocation of Maine鈥檚 24 delegates to the GOP convention in Tampa, Fla.聽
What did matter at Maine鈥檚 caucuses was the second phase of the action 鈥� selection of delegates to the state GOP convention, which in turn will allocate those precious 24 national votes. And the Paul camp may have dominated this process.
The Paul camp planned this 鈥� we鈥檝e called it their secret ninja caucus strategy. 聽While they鈥檙e complaining about the preference poll, they鈥檙e also telling their supporters that their delegate strategy means they may win the Pine Tree State in the end.
鈥淲e are confident that for the convention in August,鈥� said Paul鈥檚 national campaign chairman Jesse Benton in a statement Sunday.
