Ron Paul's secret ninja strategy for Maine caucuses
Ron Paul has a secret, ninja-like Seal Team 6 strategy to win big in the Feb. 11 Maine Republican caucuses. Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and the mainstream media won鈥檛 see Paul鈥檚 forces coming until they鈥檝e snatched a majority of the Pine Tree State鈥檚 24 delegates and raced off towards August and the national convention in Tampa, Fla.
OK, that鈥檚 kind of an exaggeration. But it contains a nucleus of truth. The Paul team has a plan for winning more delegates in many caucus states than straw poll votes would indicate Paul is entitled to. Mr. Paul鈥檚 supporters are proud of this approach, which has 鈥渘ot been clearly reported鈥�, as Paul campaign manager earlier this week.
We鈥檒l use Maine to explain how this works.
On Saturday, Feb. 11, Maine鈥檚 Republican Party is set to announce the results of a presidential preference poll taken at caucuses held around the state. (While many of those caucuses will take place on Saturday, some towns held theirs weeks ago, as we鈥檝e previously noted.)
But that poll is non-binding. It鈥檚 a beauty contest, a straw vote, a mere indicator of personal preferences. It will not be indicative of how the state鈥檚 delegates will be divvied up.
That apportionment will be the result of a second task the caucuses were supposed to accomplish: selection of delegates to the state GOP convention in May. It鈥檚 that meeting that will officially put its stamp on for whom Maine鈥檚 delegates will go. So if Paul鈥檚 folks stick around at town caucuses and get themselves picked as delegates to the state confab, voila, they can then vote for their guy at the state convention. Thus it鈥檚 possible for Paul 鈥� or any candidate who tries this 鈥� to outperform their beauty contest showing.
That鈥檚 the case in most other caucus states, too. (Nevada is different.) As Davidson College political scientist Josh Putnam points out on his invaluable voting process blog , 鈥渄elegates from those states cannot be allocated until, well, they are allocated. In Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, and over the weekend add Maine to the mix, that won鈥檛 happen until the congressional district or state conventions.鈥�
Paul campaign manager Mr. Tate spelled out some of the practical implications of this in his statement to supporters. In Minnesota, where Paul finished second to Mr. Santorum in the preference poll, 鈥渢he Paul campaign is well-organized to win the bulk of the delegates there,鈥� according to Tate.
In Colorado, where Paul finished fourth with 12 percent of the vote, the Texas libertarian will end up with more than 12 percent of the state鈥檚 delegates, Tate asserted. In Larimer County, where the straw poll vote was 23 for Santorum and 13 for Paul, Paul supporters took all 13 state delegate slots available, for instance. In Delta County, where the preference vote went 22 for Santorum, 12 for Mr. Romney, and 8 for Paul, Paul took all five available delegate slots. And so forth.
It鈥檚 possible that the Paul campaign is cherry-picking districts here in an attempt to make their results look good. It鈥檚 also possible that Paul has greater underlying delegate strength at the moment than most members of the Pundit Club realize.
Of course, he鈥檒l need those delegates. At the moment, Romney has 94 pledged delegates that count toward the national convention in Tampa, according to a . Santorum has 71, and Newt Gingrich 29. Paul has eight.
Plus, the total number of delegates at stake in all GOP caucus states this year is 462, by our count. Yet a candidate needs 1,144 delegate votes to win the nomination. Clearly there are limits to any caucus-centric Paul strategy.
