Does Newt Gingrich have a women voter problem?
Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary despite widespread publicity about his messy divorces and multiple marriages. Sarah Palin and some other conservative women have publicly supported the former House speaker, saying that in their view he鈥檚 the true grassroots tea party champion in the race.
On Sunday New York Times columnist Gail Collins went so far as to say that the former Speaker could go down in history as the politician who proved that voters .
But Mr. Gingrich may still have a problem with female voters. In Florida in particular, he鈥檚 less popular among women than he is among men. That gender gap is contributing to the sudden reemergence of Mitt Romney as the favorite for Tuesday鈥檚 Florida primary.
In a new NBC/Marist poll, for instance, by a wide 47 to 26 percent. He鈥檚 behind among men as well, but by a smaller 38 to 29 percent margin.
A new Mason/Dixon survey for a number of Florida news outlets showed Gingrich and Romney . But among women Gingrich again trailed, by 46 to 27 percent.
Similarly, Public Policy Polling鈥檚 overnight tracking results showed the two Florida front-runners tied among males, but Romney leading among women by a whopping 13 points, 43 to 30 percent.
鈥淢itt Romney is in our Florida polling,鈥� said Dean Debnam, PPP president, in a Monday press release. 鈥淚t looks like the main suspense in the state is whether he鈥檒l win by single digits or double digits.鈥�
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It鈥檚 unclear whether women are reacting against Gingrich鈥檚 marital history, his combative nature, or his attempt to position himself as the conservative alternative to, in Gingrich鈥檚 words, a 鈥�Massachusetts moderate.鈥� But notably, the PPP survey breakdown shows that almost equal percentages of male and female respondents rated themselves as either very or somewhat conservative. So it is not the case that women are disproportionately moderate, and thus more likely to support Romney.
Ms. Palin鈥檚 support of Gingrich is an interesting test case. In a statement on her Facebook page, she notes that Gingrich is 鈥渁n imperfect vessel鈥� for tea party support, but argues that the GOP establishment is simply carpet-bombing him in its attempt to keep control of the party and keep tea partyers down.
鈥淭he challenge of this election is not simply to replace President Obama. The real challenge is who and what we will replace him with. It鈥檚 not enough to just change up the uniform,鈥� in her Facebook note.
But as of Monday morning the wall section of the chief Mama Grizzly鈥檚 Facebook entry was from her followers (of both genders) discussing whether Gingrich was in fact the right choice for the tea party, with many expressing discontent with Palin鈥檚 choice.
