Ron Paul ad blitz: Will it work?
Ron Paul is launching a multimillion-dollar ad blitz in early voting states, in case you haven鈥檛 heard. That makes him pretty much the first candidate to take to the airwaves in a major way with the intent of shaping the initial contours of the Republican presidential race.
Will that strategy work for him?
Before we address that question directly, let鈥檚 take a look at the ads themselves. They鈥檙e textbook middle-of-the-road political advertising. By that, we don鈥檛 mean the content is middle-of-the-road: Mr. Paul鈥檚 libertarianism is of a pure variety and not every voter鈥檚 cup of hot beverage. But the ads themselves are well-produced in a usual way, without the transcendent weirdness of Carly Fiorina鈥檚 鈥淒emon Sheep鈥� ad or Christine O鈥橠onnell鈥檚 classic spot, 鈥淚 Am Not a Witch.鈥�
The leadoff ad, introduces Paul鈥檚 new budget-balancing outline to voters. It visually highlights that he鈥檚 proposing to cut $1 trillion, eliminate five federal bureaucracies, end foreign wars, and rein in the Federal Reserve in Year 1 of a President Paul administration.
(It doesn鈥檛 say anything about things such as: Who鈥檇 be taking care of the national parks after the Paul team does away with the Department of the Interior? But hey, details to come, right?)
The , in its conception, may be more interesting. It鈥檚 a negative ad that attacks Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain from the right.
It depicts Barack Obama鈥檚 economic efforts as a failure, then says that Messrs. Romney, Perry, and Cain all at some point expressed support for bailing out US banks and/or economic stimulus programs.
鈥淲here are the people who will say all of this stuff is socialism?鈥� intones the Paul ad.
We know where! In the last section of the ad, where a smiling Paul says that 鈥渘ow we鈥檙e bankrupt, and we have to decide which way to go.鈥�
Look, Paul is still the longest of long shots to win the nomination. He鈥檚 running at around 8 percent of the vote in national polls. His noninterventionist brand of foreign policy does not mesh with the views of most Republican voters. His staunch libertarianism can seem chilly to the party鈥檚 remaining moderates. The oddsmakers at the say he鈥檚 got only a 2.4 chance of emerging from the GOP primaries victorious.
That said, it鈥檚 possible these ads could have a major effect on Paul鈥檚 standing within the race and his subsequent national image and popularity.
One reason why this might be so is he鈥檚 got lots of money to run the spots. He鈥檚 raised over $12 million in this election cycle, behind only Romney and Perry. Cain, for example, probably does not have the resources to put up such a series of ads this early.
Plus, the spots are targeted at early-voting states, such as Iowa and New Hampshire 鈥� and in Iowa, at least, it is possible to envision a Paul breakout scenario in which he does well.
Paul鈥檚 polls in Iowa run ahead of his national numbers 鈥� right now he鈥檚 getting about 10.5 percent of the Hawkeye State vote, according to the of major surveys. That puts him third, behind Cain and Romney 鈥� but ahead of Perry.
Plus, Michele Bachmann, who鈥檚 right behind Paul at 9.5 percent of the Iowa vote, may be imploding. Her New Hampshire staff has quit, her fundraising is drying up, and she isn鈥檛 standing out in the debates. It鈥檚 possible that her supporters, who tend to be staunch fiscal conservatives, could begin drifting to 鈥淚鈥檒l cut $1 trillion right away鈥� Ron Paul.
If Cain or Romney commit some slip 鈥� and in this up-and-down political year, there have been candidate slips aplenty 鈥� Paul could sneak into second. A silver medal in Iowa would put Paul in headlines and boost him heading toward New Hampshire.
Of course, it鈥檚 also possible this is a lot of sound and fury signifying ignorance. Maybe campaign ads make very little difference at all 鈥� an idea they鈥檙e exploring on The New York Times polling blog.
But that鈥檚 a post for another day.
