Herman Cain: What's behind his rise in the polls?
Herman Cain has leapt into the top tier of GOP presidential candidates, in case you haven鈥檛 heard. In the released Tuesday, Mr. Cain is tied with Texas Gov. Rick Perry for second, at 14 percent of Republican-leaning voters. That鈥檚 bad news for Governor Perry, but great news for the Hermanator, whose numbers have generally been described by single digits since the 2012 race began in earnest.
What鈥檚 going on here? Why the sudden rise? Well, for one thing, Cain appears to be the anti-Perry. That means that where Perry has declined since voters began to see and hear more about him in GOP debates, the opposite dynamic has occurred with the ex-Godfather's Pizza exec. He鈥檚 wearing well with the Republican base.
Look at the RealClearPolitics , and you can see a clear upturn in Cain鈥檚 numbers starting about the middle of September, which is just when Perry鈥檚 polls began to sag. In particular, Cain鈥檚 rating has shot up in recent days, since he won a Sept. 24 Florida straw poll. Perry鈥檚 line has plummeted at the same time.
Confirmation of this comes with Gallup鈥檚 new , which are created by subtracting the percentage of strong opponents of a particular candidate from the percentage of strong supporters. Cain鈥檚 POS is now 30, the highest for any GOP candidate this year.
鈥淐ain鈥檚 straw poll win, and his resulting gains in recognition and positive intensity, may have made him a legitimate contender for the Republican nomination in Republicans' eyes,鈥� writes Gallup analyst Jeffrey M. Jones.
So what鈥檚 next? Is Cain going to peak and fade, as have both Michele Bachmann and Perry?
Cain himself pushed back against the idea Tuesday morning in an appearance on 鈥�Fox & Friends.鈥�
鈥淏lack walnut isn鈥檛 a flavor of the week,鈥� he said.
But Cain now faces clear problems as he breathes the rarefied air of the GOP top tier.
The first is that he鈥檚 likely to get a lot more attention. That鈥檚 good, in the sense that his still-low name recognition will go up. But it could be bad if he gets the punishing attacks from GOP rivals that have nicked Representative Bachmann and (especially) Perry.
The media may also delve more deeply into his background. 鈥淐ain will have to weather the next few debates and the next few weeks of campaigning if he is to solidify a position as a leading contender for the nomination,鈥� writes Mr. Jones of Gallup.
The second problem is how to expand his support in early primary states. Though data on this are sketchy, it appears much of Cain鈥檚 support comes from Southern states. A recent InsiderAdvantage survey showed him with a in his home state of Georgia, for instance 鈥� 41 percent.
In Florida, a SurveyUSA poll puts him right on Mitt Romney鈥檚 heels. The latter leads with 27 percent of the vote. Cain follows closely at 25 percent.
But what about Iowa, where next year鈥檚 caucuses will kick off the real voting? Currently, the RealClearPolitics state rolling average puts Cain in fifth in Iowa, with only 5.3 percent of the vote.
Cain鈥檚 numbers are even worse in New Hampshire. RCP puts him dead last there, as the choice of only 2.7 percent of voters.
Now, state polling can be much less accurate than national surveys, and some of the polls included in the Iowa and New Hampshire averages are dated. It鈥檚 possible Cain has already risen in the early voting states, and we just don鈥檛 know it yet. It鈥檚 also possible that Cain is simply something of a Southern favorite son candidate.
