Is Michele Bachmann's campaign cratering?
Is Michele Bachmann鈥檚 support among GOP voters cratering? That鈥檚 what a new Gallup/USA Today poll implies. The survey, taken last week, shows her as of respondents. That鈥檚 down from 10 percent in August.
USA Today鈥檚 estimable political correspondent Susan Page, in a tweet, described the Minnesota lawmaker鈥檚 poll trend line thusly: 鈥淏achmann implodes.鈥�
Congresswoman Bachmann does not even place third in the Gallup survey. Ron Paul does, with 13 percent of the GOP vote. Bachmann鈥檚 tied for fourth, with businessman Herman Cain and ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Wow 鈥� that鈥檚 a pretty steep fall. Has the entrance of Rick Perry into the race sapped Bachmann鈥檚 voter strength? That鈥檚 an easy conclusion to jump to, as Texas Governor Perry might appeal to the conservative, tea party-oriented faction of the GOP, as Bachmann does.
Interestingly, that doesn鈥檛 seem to really be the case. Sure, Perry鈥檚 share of the vote increased a little in Gallup鈥檚 September poll, to 31 percent, from 29 percent in August. Some of that might be due to defections from Bachmann. But it can鈥檛 account for where the majority of her voters have gone.
Mitt Romney was a big gainer, though, going to 24 percent in September from 17 percent in August.
鈥淩omney鈥檚 support may be coming from Michele Bachmann,鈥� conservative activist on the RedState blog.
How could that be? Many tea party voters are suspicious that former Massachusetts Governor Romney is a moderate wearing a conservative cloak.
Mr. Stevens points out, however, that if you run similar polls with tea party star Sarah Palin, and then without her, you can see that Ms. Palin鈥檚 voters opt for a range of other candidates if they can鈥檛 vote for their ex-Alaska governor favorite.
鈥淎dd in the fact that Bachmann has made harsh attacks specifically on Perry ... and Bachmann鈥檚 supporters going anyone-but-Perry I find to be plausible,鈥� writes Stevens.
The new poll isn鈥檛 the only bad news Bachmann鈥檚 received lately. Her former campaign manager, Ed Rollins, said on MSNBC yesterday that she might get a second look from voters if she won the Iowa caucuses, but as things stand she doesn鈥檛 have 鈥渢he ability or the resources鈥� to campaign beyond Iowa.
Bachmann has disputed this analysis, saying her campaign is 鈥�.鈥�
鈥淲e鈥檙e thrilled with how we鈥檙e doing,鈥� Bachmann told CNN.
It is true, the Gallup survey is but one poll, and there are months to go before actual voting starts. And whatever Bachmann鈥檚 current resources, she can probably obtain more. She is a 鈥�,鈥� according to the campaign watchdog group Center for Responsive Politics. She raised $13.5 million during the 2010 election cycle 鈥� more than any other member of the House.
