GOP push for repeal of health reform: Is it politically wise?
House Republicans plan to start the New Year with a splash: they say that they鈥檒l vote to repeal President Obama鈥檚 signature health-care overhaul before his upcoming State of the Union address.
Talk about firing a cannon across a ship鈥檚 bow. Such a quick move could presage a season of aggressive GOP action.
True, it would be a fulfillment of campaign pledges from the 2010 mid-terms. Many Republicans ran on a promise to rein in Obama鈥檚 agenda in general, and to undo health-care reform in particular. But is it really a wise thing to do, politically-speaking, given that Democrats retain control of the Senate, and Obama鈥檚 got his veto pen already waiting on his desk?
After all, Republicans hammered Obama and the Democrats for spending so much time on the health-care bill instead of focusing on jobs and the economy. That charge seemed to resonate with voters. (Can you say, 鈥�Speaker Boehner鈥�?) Now they鈥檙e kind of doing the same thing. It鈥檚 like they鈥檙e making revenge their first order of legislative business, instead of progress.
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Plus, they might be falling into a trap. That鈥檚 what Democrats say, anyway. The White House continues to insist that the health-care overhaul will become more and more popular as more and more Americans experience its benefits. Beginning Jan. 1, seniors will receive government help to close the Medicare drug coverage 鈥渄oughnut hole,鈥� for instance. Medicare recipients are now eligible for free preventive services.
And make no mistake: The administration has executive branch bureaucrats working overtime to churn out regulations implementing the new law. They鈥檙e trying to make it a part of the fabric of US life as fast as they can.
鈥淚 think health-care reform is going to go down in history as one of the great achievements of this president,鈥� said Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine in a CNN interview on Sunday.
Well, maybe. But polls show that public opinion on health care has barely budged since the bill was passed last March. The latest Kaiser Family Foundation survey finds that 42 percent of respondents have a generally favorable view of the law, and 41 percent have a generally unfavorable view. That split does not appear to reflect a mandate for either side in this argument.
And the success or failure of legislation may not have as direct an effect on Obama鈥檚 reelection prospects as administration officials hope. The recent lame duck session of Congress rushed through a bipartisan agreement to extend the Bush tax cuts, a repeal of the military鈥檚 ban on gays serving openly in the military, and a nuclear arms agreement with Russia, among other things. All these moves are favored by at least a plurality of the public, yet Obama鈥檚 favorability ratings have stayed flat.
Obama鈥檚 approval rating remains at 47 percent in 鈥� right about where it was in November.
鈥淥ne might have expected Obama to see a bump in approval from the flurry of legislation passed in Congress prior to the Christmas recess,鈥� writes Gallup analyst Lydia Saad.
In the end, a vote to repeal the health bill would be a powerful symbol of change, showing how Republicans will steer Washington in a new direction, say GOP leaders. Some say it might not even be just a symbol 鈥� Rep. Fred Upton (R) of Michigan, incoming chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said Sunday that it is possible health-care repeal could actually become the law of the land.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think we鈥檙e going to be that far off from having the votes to actually override a veto,鈥� said Rep. Upton in a Fox broadcast interview.
If they don鈥檛, Republicans will go after the bill piece-by-piece, said Upton. They鈥檒l look at the issue of whether the US can require individuals to buy health insurance, for instance 鈥� the so-called 鈥渋ndividual mandate鈥� on which so many of the other bill鈥檚 other reforms depend.
鈥淲e鈥檒l look at these individual pieces to see if we can鈥檛 have the thing crumble,鈥� said Upton.
