Are Senate races really tied? Why new polls may not tell whole story.
Three new polls show statistical dead heats in Senate races in California, Florida, and Kentucky 鈥� three races that both parties see as key as they vie for control.
But the polls, conducted , survey registered voters rather than likely voters, and may not give an accurate picture.
In Florida's Senate race, for instance, the new numbers give Republican candidate Marco Rubio only a tiny edge over Independent Charlie Crist (36 percent to 34 percent, with Democrat Kendrick Meek coming in at 24 percent). But another new , of likely voters, gives Mr. Rubio a double-digit lead over Mr. Crist.
Even worse news for Crist: More Democrats 鈥� whose support would be crucial to his election 鈥� seem to be backing Mr. Meek.
Both Crist and Meek unveiled new campaign commercials this week, with Crist making a to voters turned off by the partisan direction of this election season. In it, he walks between the words 鈥�Republicans鈥� and 鈥淒emocrats鈥� before rearranging the large red and blue letters to spell 鈥淎mericans.鈥� 鈥淎t the end of the day,鈥� he says, 鈥渢here鈥檚 only one party I work for.鈥�
But it鈥檚 an open question how well that message will resonate; the Sunshine State poll has Crist trailing Rubio even among independent voters.
The poll on the Kentucky Senate race seems like even more of an outlier, showing a tie between Republican (and "tea party" candidate) Rand Paul and Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway. Others recent surveys by Rasmussen and SurveyUSA give Dr. Paul a 15-point edge.
In California, meanwhile, virtually all polls show a statistical tie, or near-tie, between Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer and Republican challenger Carly Fiorina.
What鈥檚 behind the difference in the polls, and how can a layperson make sense of it all?
Those of 鈥渓ikely voters鈥� try to weed out not only the people who aren鈥檛 registered and can鈥檛 vote, but also those who will probably simply stay home on Nov. 2. According to from a Gallup pollster, respondents are rated on the basis of their answers to certain questions.
In a year like this, when many voters seem uninspired by either candidate, there鈥檚 a big likelihood that many will opt to stay home in protest.
Another interesting phenomenon: Screening for likely voters tends to improve prospects for Republican candidates, due to better turnout.
The results have wondering why CNN would even bother to do a registered-voter poll this close to the election, when likely-voter polls are considered much more accurate. But perhaps the results point to at least one window of opportunity for embattled Democratic candidates in these states: Now they have to somehow find a way to inspire those backers who, at this point, are planning to stay home.
