Arizona governor debate: Was Jan Brewer really that bad?
Jan Brewer鈥檚 debate performance on Wednesday was not good. She鈥檚 said so herself.
The incumbent Republican Arizona governor, matched against Democratic opponent Terry Goddard, babbled a bit with her opening statement (鈥淚 have done so much and I cannot believe we have changed everything!"), but the awfulness really rolls at about 38 seconds in, when she runs out of things to say, looks down, clasps her hands, and pauses for five seconds or so. She clasps her hands, and gives a sort of combination sigh and giggle, and then says 鈥淲e have, uh ... did what was right for Arizona.鈥� (See video below.)
Yes, it was bad. Was it the worst debate performance ever? That鈥檚 what Democratic strategist James Carville said on CNN this morning.
鈥淚鈥檝e seen a lot of meltdowns in debate. That鈥檚 about as bad as I鈥檝e seen,鈥� said Mr. Carville.
Well, that鈥檚 a matter of, um, debate.
The debate bloopers hall of fame
National politics has seen some pretty memorable stumbles 鈥� mistakes of style and substance that rank up there with Governor Brewer's.
In 1976 Gerald Ford famously said, 鈥淭here is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe鈥� in a debate with Jimmy Carter. (There was, back then. Trust us.)
In the 1988 vice presidential debate, Dan Quayle likened his political experience to that of John F. Kennedy. It was this misstep that opened the door to Lloyd Bentsen鈥檚 famous riposte, 鈥淛ack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you鈥檙e no Jack Kennedy.
In terms of cringe-worthiness, who can forget Adm. James Stockdale? He was Ross Perot鈥檚 running mate, and in the 1992 he opened by saying 鈥淲ho am I? Why am I here?鈥�
Voters asked the same thing.
And remember Al Gore鈥檚 endless sighing in his 2000 debate with George Bush? That鈥檚 one reason he鈥檚 an environmental activist today.
The point here is that debate gaffes are legion. Do they matter? That depends on outside political circumstances.
Generally speaking, debates themselves are an important influence on political outcomes, but only at the margins. In presidential debates since 1960, only once has a candidate significantly gained in the wake of a debate, and then held on to the bump. That was in 1980, when Ronald Reagan asked Americans 鈥淎re you better off?鈥� in a debate with Carter. He jumped seven points in the polls.
That said, debates reinforce voters鈥� notions about candidate character. Mr. Gore鈥檚 sighing hurt him because Americans already perceived him as pedantic. Mr. Quayle鈥檚 attempt to link himself to JFK boomeranged and only emphasized his inexperience.
Was it a fatal fumble?
But debate gaffes aren鈥檛 fatal. Listen to these reviews: In 2004, Republican author and former presidential candidate Pat Buchanan said George Bush had 鈥渢he worst debate performance I have ever seen鈥� in his first match-up with Sen. John Kerry. (That was the one where Bush said, of the presidency, 鈥淚t鈥檚 hard work. It鈥檚 hard work.鈥�)
Of President Obama鈥檚 performance in an April debate for Democratic candidates, Obama supporter and Atlantic Monthly blogger Andrew Sullivan said, 鈥淚t was a lifeless, exhausted, drained and dreary Obama we saw tonight.鈥�
Both those guys won, in case you forgot.
So, why was Brewer鈥檚 performance so bad? Carville suggested lack of sleep, and that鈥檚 a possible culprit. But rule one of debate preparation is know the format 鈥� will there be an opening statement? Are there chances for rebuttal? Things like that.
On Thursday, there was a chance for both candidates to make a statement at the beginning of the debate, and Brewer did not have one 鈥� either on paper, or in her head. That is flat out bad political preparation, due to either her own slip or bad work by a staff member. If it鈥檚 the latter, that staff member鈥檚 ears are probably smarting.
