How Martha Coakley misread the tea leaves in Boston Harbor
Win or lose in Tuesday鈥檚 Massachusetts senate race, Democrat Martha Coakley may rue a major strategic mistake: Misreading the tea leaves stirring again in Boston Harbor.
For an out-of-left-field state senator named Scott Brown 鈥� a purplish Republican in the bluest of blue states 鈥� to come close to winning Senate lion Ted Kennedy鈥檚 long-Democratic seat is stunning. Should he win, analysts agree, it鈥檒l be confirmation that the political universe has shuddered and realigned, with major implications for President Obama鈥檚 progressive agenda in Washington by breaking the Democrats鈥� hold on the Senate.
鈥淚f Brown wins this election, it will be the shot heard around the world,鈥� Rhode Island Tea Party President Colleen Conley . 鈥淭his will be a clear indictment of the Obama presidency and the Democratic Congress overreaching.鈥�
Trying to stave off a surging Brown, who moved ahead in one poll on Thursday, Coakley鈥檚 campaign is now charging full-bore, calling in what the Monitor calls 鈥渢he big guns鈥�: former president Bill Clinton and, on Sunday, President Barack Obama, who had earlier said he wouldn鈥檛 campaign for Coakley.
Coakley's 'Rose Garden' strategy
To be sure, even liberal strategists in Massachusetts now admit privately and in the media that Coakley鈥檚 鈥渙h-so-insider鈥� strategy and the air of inevitability some commentators called the Rose Garden strategy, failed to match the public鈥檚 mood. Brown may have closed the distance with the single phrase: 鈥淚t isn鈥檛 Ted Kennedy鈥檚 seat, it belongs to the people of Massachusetts.鈥�
鈥淸Coakley鈥檚] response, at crunch time, is to rely on the White House and the Democratic National Committee 鈥� even as her opponent is imploring voters to vote for 鈥榤e against the machine鈥�,鈥� writes Boston Globe columnist Adrian Walker. 鈥淗is message is resonating. Her strategy isn鈥檛.鈥�
Now with Messrs. Clinton and Obama stumping this weekend, Coakley鈥檚 strategic mistakes are turning into a possible lose-lose for Democrats all around. Obama鈥檚 stakes alone are huge as, if Coakley pulls out a victory, it would show she couldn鈥檛 do it on her own; if she loses, Obama stuck his neck out, got involved (which he initially wasn鈥檛 going to do), and showed he couldn鈥檛 rescue the one vote he needs to pass healthcare reform in what has, by all accounts, become a referendum on reform.
The linchpin here is the healthcare reform bill. With a minority of Americans supporting it, Brown has cast himself as the deal-breaker, the man who could 鈥� as the 41st Republican in the Senate 鈥� put the kibosh on the bill.
Meanwhile, Coakley鈥檚 campaign has been trying to paint Brown as a mediocre populist consorting with known enemies of the President, including the tea party groups
鈥淚f Brown wants to make it national, he has to live with Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity and Bill O鈥橰eilly,鈥欌�� one Coakley adviser told the Boston Globe. 鈥樷�業f that means we have to own Barack Obama and Ted Kennedy, I like our odds.鈥欌��
Brown stayed away from fire-breathing conservatives
That charge has actually stuck. Indeed, Brown did not call on figures like John McCain or Sarah Palin to stump for him, but instead called in the more centrist former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani. Brown has, in fact, downplayed his connections to the tea party movement, even as tea partiers contributed to a million-dollar 鈥渕oney bomb鈥� that fell into Brown鈥檚 coffers one day last week.
Mr. Clinton denounced the tea party connection to Brown on Friday at a rally for Coakley.
鈥淚 thought Massachusetts knew more about American history than anybody else, and understood the Boston Tea Party was a revolt against abuse of power, not against government itself,鈥� Clinton said.
But it is in many ways Obama鈥檚 bold agenda and promise to co-opt 鈥渂usiness as usual鈥� in Washington that鈥檚 sparked a massive second-guessing of progressivism even in the liberal heartland of the Northeastern Commonwealth.
鈥淰oters are down on Washington,鈥� writes veteran AP reporter Liz Sidoti. 鈥淭hey are deeply divided over the healthcare plan in Congress. And a majority think the country is on the wrong track. Nearly all remain anxious about the prolonged recession even though there are signs of recovery. And only about half approve of Obama鈥檚 job performance. Excessive spending and big government irk them. And they have lost faith in institutions.鈥�
All a bit overwrought? Maybe not. Tuesday will indicate the depth of voter dissatisfaction, and will show both parties how to win 鈥� and how to lose 鈥� in 2010.
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