海角大神

Dear reader:

No packed arenas cheering the nominee. No delegates dressed like Uncle Sam posing for photographers. No balloon drops.

The U.S. political nominating conventions, which begin next week, are going to be less of a spectacle than usual. Does this mean they won鈥檛 provide either nominee with a boost at the polls?

A little background if you鈥檝e missed it: due to the pandemic, the traditional Democratic and Republican conventions have been transformed into virtual events. (Or mostly virtual, in the case of the GOP, as President Donald Trump has indicated he鈥檚 likely to accept his nomination in a speech at the White House or the Gettysburg Civil War battlefield.)

In the past, the political conventions have often been an inflection point in the presidential race, delivering a poll 鈥渂ounce鈥� to one candidate or another. Nobody really knows if they鈥檒l play such a role in 2020.

From 1968 to 2016, presidential candidates received an average five percentage point bounce from their conventions, . Hypothetically, if President Trump got that kind of benefit, and Joe Biden didn鈥檛, the race would turn into something close to a dead heat.

And bounces can be asymmetric. In 2016, Mr. Trump gained 3.4% in the polls following his convention, while Hillary Clinton got 1.8%,

Both 2020 nominees will still get four days of media coverage, including two hours of prime-time TV per night,

This year the conventions are being held back-to-back, potentially stepping on each other鈥檚 build-up and subsequent bounce. They鈥檙e also relatively late, coming at a point when many voters may have already made up their minds. In general, bounces have been getting smaller, anyway: Since 2000 they鈥檙e about half what they were from 1984 to 1996.

Nor is bounce size correlated with November success.

鈥淛ust ask Presidents Goldwater, Mondale, Dole, or Gore, all of whom had bigger bumps than their competitors,鈥� writes Dr. Holbrook.

Let us know what you鈥檙e thinking at csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.