Is Bernie cruising to the nomination? And is it too late for anyone to stop him?
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Politics Editor
| Washington
Dear reader:
Is the presidential primary contest closer to over than many Democrats realize?
Yesterday, FiveThirtyEight鈥檚 Nate Silver聽聽that after Super Tuesday 鈥� essentially two weeks from today 鈥� Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders will have accumulated 41% of delegates. To which former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe聽: 鈥淚f this happens, Sanders would have a pledged delegate lead he鈥檒l never relinquish.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Unless something happens to change the current trajectory, the senator from Vermont looks on track to become the Democratic nominee. He benefits from a divided opposition that shies away from attacking him.
In other words, while party stalwarts are聽聽over the prospect of nominating a 78-year old self-proclaimed democratic socialist as their standard bearer 鈥� and we keep hearing about a聽聽movement in the offing 鈥� it may already be too late.
Many analysts have been聽聽to the Republican primary in 2016, in which Donald Trump鈥檚 opponents mostly refrained from attacking him for fear it would backfire on them, and the 鈥渁nti-Trump鈥� movement was never able to unite behind a single alternative.
To worried Democrats, the answer seems obvious: if the party鈥檚 moderate voters would just line up behind one candidate 鈥� Mayor Pete, or Amy, or Bloomberg 鈥� they鈥檇 anoint a new frontrunner. The problem is, none of those candidates has聽聽to drop out right now.
Nor is it entirely clear that clearing the field would make a difference. A new聽聽poll finds that when Democratic primary voters are asked to choose between only Mr. Sanders and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, they pick Mr. Sanders by a margin of 20 points; if asked to choose between Mr. Sanders and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Mr. Sanders wins by 16 points.
To drive home the Democrats鈥� bind, that same poll also finds that 67% of all registered voters are either 鈥渧ery uncomfortable鈥� or have 鈥渞eservations鈥� about a candidate who is a socialist 鈥� making it easily the most unpopular quality for a presidential contender. Indeed, Senate Republicans are already gleefully running聽聽tying their Democratic opponents to the senator from Vermont.
Party leaders, for all the hand-wringing, have mostly been staying on the sidelines. In the run-up to this Saturday鈥檚 Nevada caucuses 鈥� where polls suggest Senator Sanders is likely to win 鈥� former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid聽聽Bloomberg Businessweek鈥檚 Joshua Green that if other Democrats don鈥檛 like Sanders鈥檚 ideology, 鈥渢hey鈥檙e going to have to start saying they don鈥檛 like it.鈥�
鈥淒on鈥檛 hope that someone else is going to do it,鈥� he warned.
But as for Senator Reid himself? He voted early 鈥� and marked his ballot 鈥渦ncommitted.鈥�
Let us know what you鈥檙e thinking at聽csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.
