海角大神

While the race for the Republican nomination for president appears to be beginning in earnest, prompted in no small part by early maneuvering by Jeb Bush and the increasing likelihood that Mitt Romney is indeed going to throw his hat in the ring for a third run at the White House, things have been fairly quiet on the Democratic side of the aisle. At most, the past several months have seen some talk of potential candidacies on the part of people such as former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O鈥橫alley, as well as some speculation that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders may enter the race. The 鈥淩eady for Warren鈥� people continue to do their thing notwithstanding the fact that Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has said she鈥檚 not running for president. Vice-President Biden, meanwhile, has apparently not taken any real steps to put together a campaign organization. To a large degree, of course, the lack of action on the Democratic side of the race is due to the fact that everyone seems to be waiting to see what Hillary Clinton will do. At this point, the major shock to the Democratic field would be Clinton announcing that she isn鈥檛 running, since it would leave the party without a real front runner heading into 2016. The question, though, is when Clinton actually intends to enter the race, and a new Mike Allen piece at聽Politico聽suggests that聽

Hillary Clinton, expecting no major challenge for the Democratic nomination, is strongly considering delaying the formal launch of her presidential campaign until July, three months later than originally planned, top Democrats tell POLITICO.

The delay from the original April target will give her more time to develop her message, policy and organization, without the chaos and spotlight of a public campaign.

A Democrat familiar with Clinton鈥檚 thinking said: 鈥淪he doesn鈥檛 feel under any pressure, and they see no primary challenge on the horizon. If you have the luxury of time, you take it.鈥�

Advisers said the biggest reason for the delay is simple: She feels no rush.

鈥淪he doesn鈥檛 want to feel pressured by the press to do something before she鈥檚 ready,鈥� one adviser said. 鈥淪he鈥檚 better off as a non-candidate. Why not wait?鈥�

A huge advantage to waiting is that Clinton postpones the time when she goes before the public as a politician rather than as a former secretary of state. Polling by both Democrats and Republicans shows that one of her biggest vulnerabilities is looking political.

So the Clinton camp has enjoyed watching her recede from the headlines in recent weeks as Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney have amped up their potential candidacies.

One option being considered would be to announce an exploratory committee earlier 鈥� perhaps in April, at the beginning of a new fundraising quarter, in the timeframe when insiders originally expected her to launch her campaign.

Then the actual kickoff would be in July, near the start of the next quarter. By launching at the beginning of a quarter, supporters have the maximum amount of time to generate a blockbuster total for their first report.

The fact that Clinton hasn鈥檛 announced anything yet is, of course, a sign of just how strong her campaign for the nomination is at this point. While many will point to the 2008 election in support of the idea that Clinton鈥檚 inevitability isn鈥檛 as assured as the pundits are making it out to be, it鈥檚 quite apparent that there simply isn鈥檛 any comparison between the 2008 and 2016 races and the idea that it鈥檚 likely that Clinton could be undermined by an Obama-like candidate this time around is extremely unlikely. As I noted聽, even in the early stages of the 2008 race then-Senator Obama was polling in a strong second place behind Clinton, and the talk of her 鈥渋nevitability鈥� was far less common than current conventional wisdom would have it. This time around, Clinton polls far ahead of any of her potential opponents for the Democratic nomination, and she continues to out-poll her potential Republican challengers, and there鈥檚 no real indication that any of them could come close to being an Obama-like candidate. Webb and Schweitzer, for example, would potentially be interesting candidates that would garner a lot of press attention, but neither one of them seems likely to have the kind of grassroots appeal that would be needed to overcome their current single-digit numbers in the polls. Martin O鈥橫alley鈥檚 candidacy, to the extent it ever comes to be, will likely be hurt by the fact that he was unable to even ensure that his own lieutenant governor was elected to succeed him. At 73, nobody actually believes that Bernie Sanders is a serious candidate for office. Joe Biden seems unlikely to enter the race. And, finally, while Elizabeth Warren may have an eager fan base, she鈥檚 made it clear enough that she doesn鈥檛 intend to run, if Hillary Clinton runs for president, and that for her to change her mind on that point would seem to undermine her own credibility as a candidate. Democrats are reportedly eager to downplay the idea that the 2016 primary race will basically end up being a coronation for Hillary Clinton, but that鈥檚 exactly what it鈥檚 shaping up to be, and as long as that鈥檚 the case, there鈥檚 no reason for Clinton to enter the race any earlier than she needs to.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/.