海角大神

One of the arguments that political pundits have been repeating quite a lot in discussing the probable presidential candidacy of Hillary Clinton is the so-called 鈥渢hird term curse.鈥� In essence, this comes down to the idea that American voters are reluctant to give the same political party another turn at the White House after a two-term presidency. At least based on recent experience, there seems to be some merit to that idea. The two terms of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford were followed by Jimmy Carter; President Clinton鈥檚 two terms were followed by George W. Bush; and Mr. Bush鈥檚 two terms were followed by President Obama. Going by these examples, and the one recent counter-example of George H.W. Bush succeeding Ronald Reagan, it would seem logical to believe that the odds are against a Democrat succeeding Barack Obama in 2016. As Jeff Greenfield notes at聽The Daily Beast, though,

For much of our political history, the 鈥渢hird term鈥� curse was non-existent. During the Republican ascendancy that began with Lincoln鈥檚 election in 1860, the party won six straight elections (although it did take some highly sketchy maneuvering in 1876). Later, the White House passed from McKinley to Theodore Roosevelt to Taft, and then from Harding to Coolidge to Hoover. FDR and Harry Truman combined to keep the Presidency in Democratic hands for twenty consecutive years. (Coincidentally or not, in all of these streaks, the death of a President brought a new occupant to the White House.)

The 鈥渞eluctance鈥� Harwood points to didn鈥檛 really begin until 1960. As he puts it: 鈥淭he combination of fatigue with the incumbent party and rejuvenation by its opposition helped stymie Richard M. Nixon when he sought to succeed Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1960 and Hubert H. Humphrey when he tried to follow Lyndon B. Johnson eight years later. Al Gore lost in 2000 despite President Clinton鈥檚 high approval rating and economic record.鈥� In this last half-century plus, only George H.W. Bush was able to win a third term for his party. (Note: in every case, the nominee was the sitting vice-president 鈥� a stark reminder of how much more important that office has become in recent decades.)

As Mr. Greenfield goes on to note, each of the recent examples that people who put forward this idea is distinguishable by the unique characteristics at play both during the two preceding administrations, and at the time of the third election. The Kennedy/Nixon election in 1960, for example, was and by 1968 the nation, and most importantly the Democratic coalition was torn apart by the Vietnam War. And even then, and probably would have lost the Electoral College vote if George Wallace had not been in the race.聽In the case of Nixon and Ford, of course, we saw both the first president who was ever forced to resign and the first president who had never actually stood for election prior to taking office and even with those factors, President Ford came within 30 Electoral Votes of winning election. was the closest in American history, so it鈥檚 difficult to say that it involved any real rejection of the record of the Clinton administration. Of all the elections following a two-term presidency since 1960, perhaps only the 2008 election could be said to have been a real rejection of the legacy of the incumbent president. In that case, between resentments over the Iraq War and the growing financial crisis, Bush鈥檚 approval numbers were so low that its unlikely any Republican could have won that year. Other than that election, though, there really isn鈥檛 much recent historical evidence for the idea that voters are reluctant to keep the same party in power under the right circumstances.

To some degree, the so-called 鈥渢hird term curse鈥� is similar to an argument that some people were making prior to the 2012 election regarding why it was unlikely that Mr. Obama would be reelected. As these people correctly pointed out, the United States had not seen three two-term presidents in succession since Presidents Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe served between 1801 and 1825. Given this 鈥渇act,鈥� some people argued that it was unlikely that Obama would be elected to a second term in the wake of the successive two-term presidencies of Clinton and Bush. As it turned out, of course, this supposedly immutable law of history, which in retrospect wasn鈥檛 really a law to begin with so much as it was an historical accident and the fact that we are dealing with a small sample size, didn鈥檛 really have any influence at all over the outcome of the election that year. Similarly, while it is entirely possible that Mrs. Clinton, or whomever the Democratic nominee might be if she decides not to run or somehow ends up losing the nomination fight, could lose the general election in 2016, if it happens it won鈥檛 be because of some 鈥渢hird term curse.鈥� It will be because of the unique circumstances of that election.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at .