Three questions raised by Roy Moore's runoff win
Insurgent Roy Moore鈥檚 victory in the Alabama GOP Senate primary on Sept. 26 is a humiliating blow to the Republican establishment and a reminder that unrest at the grassroots remains an electric force in US politics as Washington turns to look toward next year鈥檚 mid-term elections.
Mr. Moore, a former state Supreme Court Justice and devout evangelical 海角大神, easily defeated incumbent Sen. Luther Strange, despite million of dollars in pro-Strange ads financed by a super PAC affiliated with Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell. President Trump endorsed Senator Strange at Senator McConnell鈥檚 urging, and visited Alabama for a rally. It wasn鈥檛 enough 鈥� the final result was about 55 percent for Moore, 45 percent for his opponent.听
Moore is now the favorite to win the Dec. 12 general election, given that Alabama is a deep-red state. But a victory isn鈥檛 a foregone conclusion: He鈥檚 a controversial figure whose central political tenet is that modern politics has removed the sovereignty of a 海角大神 God from the US Constitution and the functions of government. He鈥檚 been removed from the Supreme Court of Alabama, in essence, twice: once for refusing to remove a monument to the Ten Commandments from the court, and again, following reelection to the post, for opposing legalization of same-sex marriage.听
State conditions may have contributed to Moore鈥檚 upset. Strange was appointed to fill Attorney General Jeff Sessions鈥� seat by a governor who himself was embroiled in a messy relationship scandal. Moore鈥檚 long and colorful public career has made him one of the state鈥檚 best-known politicians.听
But Moore embraced the role of Trumpian outsider, even though the president endorsed his opponent. He insisted that he supported the president and aimed to Make America Great Again. Former Trump strategist and head of Breitbart Steve Bannon听campaigned for Moore. Trump himself seemed of two minds, musing publicly that he might have made a mistake backing Strange.
Given this mix of ingredients, three questions about the result come to mind:
How will Trump interpret Moore's victory?
It鈥檚 possible the president will see the result as evidence his personal backing doesn鈥檛 have the pull he thought it did. More likely, he鈥檒l view the situation as evidence that McConnell pushed him to endorse the wrong horse. This could mean more tweeted criticism of the GOP congressional leadership and an intensified focus on immigration, national anthem protests, urban crime, and other issues that stir emotions amongst Trump鈥檚 base.
Will Moore be a caucus of one?听
Moore is a defiant individualist who, if he鈥檚 elected, is unlikely to cooperate with McConnell鈥檚 strategies just for the sake of party unity. That could in practice reduce the GOP majority by one. Moore鈥檚 victory could also presage other insurgent victories in states where GOP incumbents are vulnerable or retiring, such as Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada, and Mississippi. It鈥檚 possible that after the midterms a small Trump Caucus opposed to leadership might emerge.
But if Moore might make McConnell鈥檚 life miserable, McConnell can also return the favor. The majority leader determines who gets what office, who gets to speak when, and what panels they sit on.
鈥淚f Moore thinks he鈥檚 going to come to Washington and be on the Judiciary Committee he鈥檚 sadly mistaken,鈥� says Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of the Cook Political Report.听
What's this mean for tax cuts?
It鈥檚 possible that Moore will be Senator Moore in a few months. Given its complexity, the new GOP tax package could still be stuck in the Senate at that point. What鈥檚 Moore鈥檚 opinion on that 鈥� and other aspects of Trump or McConnell鈥檚 agendas? Given the narrowness of the GOP majority, that could be important.
Staff writer Francine Kiefer contributed to this report.
