海角大神

Hillary Clinton鈥檚 weekend comment that 鈥渉alf鈥� of Donald Trump鈥檚 supporters are a racist and sexist 鈥渂asket of deplorables鈥� is still roiling the presidential race as the workweek begins. Lots of pundits are comparing it to Mitt Romney鈥檚 famous 鈥�47 percent鈥� statement, in which he said nearly half of American voters can be written off as welfare moochers.

Lost in most of the discussion of this comparison is the fact that Romney鈥檚 鈥�47 percent鈥� words, revealed when a secret source leaked the tape of a fundraiser to Mother Jones magazine, didn鈥檛 much affect the 2012 outcome, and probably did not even move the polls that much.

That鈥檚 the political reality behind such moments as Mrs. Clinton鈥檚 鈥渄eplorables鈥� or Romney鈥檚 鈥�47 percent鈥�: Voters usually don鈥檛 make up their minds from a few days of news coverage.

It鈥檚 true that many voters saw Romney鈥檚 perceived gaffe in negative terms. And it sure seemed like something that would have serious negative repercussions: harsh words, seemingly delivered in secret, about an opponent鈥檚 supporters. That made it seem more important than a typical political slip of the tongue.

But in terms of who people planned to vote for, 鈥渢here was no consistent evidence that much changed鈥� in the wake of the tape鈥檚 release, wrote political scientists John Sides of George Washington University and Lynn Vavreck of UCLA in their history of the 2012 election, 鈥淭he Gamble.鈥�

Gallup poll data showed President Obama鈥檚 lead over Romney actually shrank from 3 to 2 percentage points the week after 鈥�47 percent鈥� became public. Rasmussen polls stayed the same. The average of all public polls was 鈥渟table鈥� in the wake of the controversy, according to Sides and Vavreck.

In other words, peoples鈥� opinions about the race did not really alter, on either side.

In contrast, the first 2012 debate, held on Oct. 3, did move the polls. The media roundly declared Romney the victor over a flat Obama. Some surveys even put Romney in the lead. (Spoiler alert: He lost. The fallout of subsequent debates reversed those gains.)

What鈥檚 the takeaway from this? Maybe that lots of things the media says are game-changers, aren鈥檛.

It鈥檚 certainly possible that Clinton鈥檚 鈥渄eplorables鈥� comment could hurt her. Insulting ordinary voters is not something campaign consultants generally urge. But in general presidential races are not unstable. Leads shrink or widen slowly, driven by fundamentals such as the state of the economy, or predictable dynamics such as Republican voters rallying around Trump. At this point in the cycle, many people鈥檚 minds are set, and it takes a lot to change them.

There are break points, but they tend to be set news events that draw massive coverage. The conventions are one 鈥� Clinton jumped out to a big lead following the close of the Democratic National Convention. The debates might be another. Thus the first direct clash between Clinton and Trump, set for Sept. 26, is likely to be more consequential than Clinton鈥檚 insult.