Here's why the New York primary did not change 2016 race
| Washington
Here鈥檚 our unpopular opinion: Sweeping victories in the New York primary by presidential front-runners Hillary Rodham Clinton and Donald Trump did not change the 2016 race. They simply illustrated where the race has been headed all along.
That鈥檚 because both wins were predictable, and predicted. Trump has done well with northeastern GOP electorates and is New York City born and bred. Clinton does well in big states where Democratic voters mimic the party鈥檚 nationwide coalition. It鈥檚 been clear for weeks they were Empire State favorites. By Election Day eve both were 99 percent favorites at FiveThirtyEight鈥檚 primary forecast site.
Thus the results don鈥檛 add or subtract momentum from anyone as much as show long-existing strengths and weaknesses and focus our attention on two important, obvious conclusions about the nomination endgames.
The first is that it is going to be very difficult to take the nomination away from Donald Trump even if he does not reach the 1,237 delegate victory threshold. Following Trump鈥檚 Wisconsin primary loss, the #NeverTrump crowd was optimistic that a contested convention would turn to someone else. That鈥檚 still possible but if it happens, it will happen after Trump has won a series of big states, including New York, and likely Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
The essential vector of the GOP race hasn鈥檛 changed. Trump鈥檚 support isn鈥檛 softening; it鈥檚 about where it鈥檚 been all along. The Donald will reach the convention with more than 1,000 delegates, plus a state-winning streak. As Politico鈥檚 Eli Stokol today, Trump may reach a magic number that鈥檚 short of 1,237 but close enough to make it impossible to deny him the crown. What鈥檚 that number, exactly? Nobody knows.
The second point is that it would now take a revolution unprecedented in the history of American politics for Bernie Sanders to win. For all practical purposes the Democratic contest is over.
Yes, Sanders and Hillary Clinton are now virtually tied in national polls. The problem for Bernie is that much of the nation has already voted, and he lost. As we鈥檝e said over and over, his delegate deficit of 200+ doesn鈥檛 seem big, but it鈥檚 really hard to make up. Democratic rules allocate delegates proportionately, meaning that he needs big wins in big places to close the gap. He鈥檚 not getting them.
The vector of the Democratic race hasn鈥檛 changed either. Unless something major occurs to alter the demographics of support for Clinton and Trump, the former Secretary of State and the billionaire developer/TV-star will face off in the fall.聽
