Donald Trump is a moderate. That doesn't mean what you think.
Is Donald Trump a moderate Republican?
Yes, he probably is. But the nature of his 鈥渕oderation鈥� shows the limits of ideological sorting. In the end, putting politicians (and voters) on a tidy left-to-right scale may not tell us as much as we think it does.
Mr. Trump鈥檚 opponents are eager to stick him with the moderate label. In their telling he is a squish, a suspect conservative, Bernie Sanders in disguise. A recent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) of Texas ad shows kids playing with a Trump action figure. Asked what the doll does, its owner replies, 鈥淗e pretends to be a Republican!鈥� Everyone laughs.
This charge is partly based on suspicion. Donald Trump had Bill and Hillary Clinton attend his wedding, grumble some on the right. He鈥檚 donated to Democrats. Surely that means he鈥檚 a leftist plant.
But it鈥檚 also based on real Trump positions. The Donald is to the left of the GOP on trade, as he explicitly favors protectionism. He鈥檚 opposed to reductions in Social Security and Medicare. He favors allowing abortion in cases of rape or incest 鈥� an exception Senator Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio (R) of Florida oppose.
Trump says little about gay rights. He鈥檚 harshly criticized President George W. Bush for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. That remains heretical in today鈥檚 GOP.
鈥淪umming everything together, I鈥檇 say Trump is most moderate GOP candidate left in the race,鈥� , senior political analyst at the FiveThirtyEight data site, in late February.
But here鈥檚 the catch: You can reach a moderate result by averaging extreme points of data. One plus nine divided by two equals five. And on some issues, Trump is so far to the right it takes a telescope to see the center fielder.
The obvious example is immigration, with his proposed Mexican-financed border wall and ban on the entry of Muslim citizens. Trump has also vowed to go far beyond waterboarding, defined by the Pentagon as torture, in dealing with terrorism suspects. He鈥檚 talked about 鈥渢aking out鈥� the wives and children of ISIS members.
As this shows, it鈥檚 possible to be extreme on individual issues, but ideologically moderate in general. That鈥檚 the case with many, if not most, 鈥渕oderate鈥� voters. Their separate positions are mixed-up, ideologically-speaking. They鈥檙e for big tax cuts, say, but against greater involvement in Syria. Or they oppose gay marriage but support increasing Social Security. The result is middle-of-the-road.
United States voters don鈥檛 care whether politicians are moderate per se. They do care about politicians backing their own mixed bag of positions. That may be a secret of Trump鈥檚 ideologically diverse appeal.
鈥淢any voters want a candidate with eclectic but extreme positions on key issues, especially the very ones where Trump has staked out extreme stances,鈥� Doug Ahler of the University of California at Berkeley and David Broockman of Stanford University on this subject in The Washington Post last December.
