Would Trump gain or lose from Sarah Palin support?
Donald Trump is hinting that somebody big is going to stand on stage with him at a rally tonight in Ames, Iowa.
鈥淚 will have a major announcement and a very special guest in attendance,鈥� Mr. Trump tweeted over the weekend, sending the GOP social mediasphere into .
Will that special guest be Sarah Palin? That鈥檚 the punditry鈥檚 leading theory at the moment. The evidence for this is fairly thin, consisting of an alleged private plane flight from Alaska to Iowa, and little else. But some folks who might know think that鈥檚 the case, and hey, it does make sense on a basic level. Mrs. Palin and Trump have mutually complimented each other in the past. She鈥檚 still famous enough 鈥� particularly among Republicans 鈥� that her nod would rate as a 鈥渕ajor鈥� move.
鈥淒oes anybody know where @SarahPalinUSA plans to be on Tuesday?鈥� tweeted on Monday.
But here鈥檚 the $64 billion-dollar question: Would a Palin endorsement help or hurt The Donald?
In the short run, it would certainly produce a lot of news coverage. Trump鈥檚 a master at that, and this would be another masterstroke 鈥� landing Palin only days before actual voting starts in Iowa鈥檚 caucuses.
Palin might also help Trump fight the perception that he鈥檚 really a liberal who just happens to be tough on immigration. That鈥檚 the essence of the 鈥淣ew York values鈥� attack that Ted Cruz leveled at Trump during last week鈥檚 debate.
But here鈥檚 the kicker: Yes, she鈥檚 still famous, but she鈥檚 not nearly the Republican star she used to be. She might need Trump more than Trump needs her.
Since her 2008 heyday, Palin鈥檚 net favorability ratings have slumped more than 40 points, noted the data journalism site FiveThirtyEight in mid-2015. Among the electorate as a whole, she鈥檚 unpopular 鈥� subtract unfavorable views from favorable, and the result is -24, according to 538. She鈥檚 still popular with the GOP 鈥� her favorable number in the party is plus 24 鈥� but that鈥檚 still a lot lower than it used to be.
More to that point, pollsters have generally stopped asking about her, because she鈥檚 no longer that big a political force.
鈥淧alin has receded from the national spotlight to the extent that we have very little data since 2012,鈥� back in June.
And for Palin, a Trump endorsement might be controversial. Her own Facebook page is already a tussle between supporters who would follow whomever she picks and supporters who believe she should back someone with more conservative bona fides, particularly Ted Cruz.
鈥淧lease don鈥檛 back Trump聽 ...聽 please聽 ... You know who the real conservative is ... Do the right thing!鈥� wrote one follower on Tuesday in a typical comment.
Some conservative media figures are making that same argument. Palin has long portrayed herself as the true red Mama Grizzly, but she鈥檚 now passing up the chance to back real conservatives in favor of the person who鈥檚 an obvious righty-come-lately, in this view.
鈥淔or those who expected or thought that Sarah Palin was about something larger than herself, today will be the bitter culmination of a long, slow, sad descent,鈥� .
It鈥檚 unlikely Trump cares about this debate, of course. He鈥檚 simply floated above all the criticism that he鈥檚 a RINO. When Ted Cruz brought up the 鈥淣ew York values鈥� charge, Trump hit back effectively with a paean to the city鈥檚 toughness in the wake of 9/11.
He and Palin have long traded kind words via the media, so he鈥檒l welcome her backing. For Trump, who appears to running for president on instinct, it鈥檚 probably as simple as that.
