Why Donald Trump, at last, is running his own political ads
After running virtually no paid ads in 2015, Donald Trump has produced of the presidential campaign 鈥� and it鈥檚 just as hard-hitting as you might expect.
It starts with a grainy, threatening shot of President Obama and Hillary Clinton, side-by-side. These fade and are replaced with photos of the perpetrators of the San Bernardino terrorist attack, Syed Rizwan Farook and Tashfeen Malik, superimposed on a background of police cars with flashing lights.
鈥淭he politicians can pretend it鈥檚 something else, but Donald Trump calls it radical Islamic terrorism,鈥� intones the deep-voiced narrator.
That鈥檚 why he鈥檚 calling for a 鈥渟hutdown鈥� of Muslims entering the United States, 鈥渦ntil we can figure out what鈥檚 going on," the narrator continues.
Quick cut to shots of launching United States cruise missiles and bomb target videos. Trump will 鈥渃ut the head off ISIS," the ad says, and 鈥渢ake their oil." Then it ends with video of illegal immigrants and Trump鈥檚 vow to build a wall on the southern border 鈥渢hat Mexico will pay for."
鈥淲e will make America great again!鈥� says a fired-up Trump at a rally in the closing scene.
That鈥檚 it. Thirty seconds of Trump鈥檚 best-known political statements, moving so fast it almost seems like a music video instead of a traditional political montage. In that sense, it seems to reflect Trump鈥檚 extensive experience with television editing. The Donald does not waste time on waving flags or needless shots of himself appearing to listen to voters.
But the content may not be the most important aspect of this advertisement. That might be its sheer existence. Trump鈥檚 done just fine in national polls without the usual trappings of a campaign 鈥� ads, internal polling, a squad of campaign strategists, and so forth. But with the Iowa caucuses looming,聽he鈥檚 trying the more traditional approach.
Why鈥檚 that? Well, it鈥檚 crunch time, for one thing. Real voting starts in weeks. If you鈥檙e ever going to broadcast a political ad in Des Moines 鈥� or Manchester N.H., or Columbia, S.C. 鈥� now is the time.
For US politics, the period between now and Feb. 1 鈥渨ill be a crazy, chaotic, and consequential next five weeks," and the rest of the gang at NBC News鈥檚 Political Unit.
And Trump, whose whole political persona is based on the premise that he鈥檚 a winner, losing in these early voting states might be uniquely difficult to take. His free media coverage might begin to diminish. His alpha-male insults about his rivals might begin to backfire. The GOP establishment, emboldened, might coalesce around an anti-Trump and strike back.
Right now that looks entirely possible. To some extent, Trump is underperforming in early voting state polls, compared to his national front-runner ratings.
In Iowa, for instance, he鈥檚 behind. He trails Sen. Ted Cruz by 3.6 percentage points, according to the . Iowa GOP caucus-goers are often disproportionately evangelical 海角大神s, a demographic in which Cruz does well.
In New Hampshire, Trump鈥檚 in front, but by a few points less than his national lead of about 15 percentage points. The story is the same in South Carolina. If he loses in Iowa, are these advantages soft? Will his voters migrate elsewhere? That鈥檚 the kind of thing traditional politicians worry about.
Of course, Trump has proved that he鈥檚 anything but a traditional politician. Maybe his ad is just the latest epic Trump troll. Throw together a spot, announce a vague ad 鈥渂uy鈥� with a dollar figure attached, then sit there and watch the free coverage roll in as cable news re-runs your ad for free a billion times and pundits argue over its meaning.
