How, this time, Trump may actually have gone too far
Donald Trump appears to have finally gone too far 鈥� not for his supporters, but for shocked members of the US media and political establishment. Some of them have responded to Mr. Trump鈥檚 proposal to ban non-citizen Muslims from entering the United States with a level of criticism unheard in American politics since the days of populist demagogues George Wallace and Huey Long 鈥� and perhaps not even then.
Jeb Bush called Trump "unhinged." Lindsey Graham said he was "downright dangerous." Hillary Clinton tweeted out "Love trumps hate."
Such tough words might be expected from political rivals. But Dick Cheney isn鈥檛 running for president in 2016, and he said that Trump鈥檚 proposal 鈥済oes against everything we stand for and believe in.鈥�
Journalists, who have struggled with how to handle Trump鈥檚 outrageous and at times demonstrably false statements, went further in some instances. The New York Daily News ran a cover illustration of Trump beheading the Statue of Liberty. Former NBC anchor concluding in Arlington Cemetery, saying Trump鈥檚 Muslim ban is 鈥渁 dangerous proposal the overrides history, the law, and the foundation of America itself.鈥�
At BuzzFeed on Tuesday editor-in-chief Ben Smith issued new guidelines for employees about how to discuss Trump on social media.
鈥淚t is, for instance, entirely fair to call him a mendacious racist,鈥� wrote Mr. Smith.
Wow. Will this outpouring of vitriol affect Trump鈥檚 political standing in any way?
Well, it鈥檚 unlikely to quickly erode his poll numbers. For one thing, condemnation for his proposal is not universal among top Republicans. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) of Texas commended Trump for 鈥渇ocusing America鈥檚 attention on the need to secure our borders.鈥� For another, Trump voters are predisposed to back a Muslim entry ban. Republicans who think Muslims pose an immediate threat to the US are than are less concerned members of the GOP.
The more interesting and fateful question is whether the blowback on the proposed entry ban helps cap Trump鈥檚 share of the GOP electorate at its current 20 to 30 percent range. That would likely lead to a fairly quick exit from the race once actual voting starts in February.
That limitation is entirely possible.
As we wrote yesterday, Trump so far is playing the media like a piano. With his outrageous statements, he鈥檚 perfected the ability to draw attention to himself, particularly after a bad poll or two.
And to this point tone hasn鈥檛 mattered. Good or bad, attention is all Trump needs. It has kept him in the public eye at a time when Americans really aren鈥檛 paying much attention to politics.
But that won鈥檛 last forever. It may not even last through January. Trump鈥檚 problem is that he needs to continually up his ante to dominate Republican news coverage. You can see that in his proposals, which have become progressively more outr茅. First it was a wall along the southern border. Now it鈥檚 a blockade aimed at an entire religion.
Each step up the escalation ladder makes his supporters love him all the more. But it risks driving away uncertain voters and solidifying the opposition of anti-Trump Republicans.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a perfect strategy to produce early polling leads. When it comes to winning nominations, however, it鈥檚 a loser,鈥� writes political scientist Jonathan Bernstein at .
Once voting starts losing candidates will drop out. The non-Trump vote will coalesce around others. If Trump鈥檚 30 percent is indeed a ceiling, at some point a rival 鈥� Cruz? Marco Rubio? 鈥� will forge ahead to victory.
Unless that鈥檚 not how it works. We鈥檒l end with the obligatory Trump caveat: We鈥檝e been wrong about his political fortunes before, and to this point his campaign has progressed like no other in the modern era.
