海角大神

There鈥檚 a bunch of new national polls out this week, and Donald Trump鈥檚 numbers aren鈥檛 quite as luxurious as they used to be.

A released Sunday showed Mr. Trump down eight percentage points since the beginning of September, from 32 to 24 percent. That鈥檚 still good for first in the GOP field, but Carly Fiorina has rocketed into second place in the CNN numbers, rising to 15 percent from 3 percent prior to the second Republican debate.

A released Thursday had Trump lower, at 21 percent. That鈥檚 not a drop, though: It鈥檚 flat, the same number he had in a corresponding August survey. Ben Carson is second in this one, at 16 percent. Ms. Fiorina is third, with 11 percent (up from 1 percent in August).

A just-released puts Trump at 25 percent, down a bit from 28 percent four weeks earlier. And a new puts him at 26 percent, up from 25 percent in late August. Both of these changes could be noise, since they鈥檙e within the pollsters鈥� margin of error.

Depending on how you crunch all Trump鈥檚 polls together, his trend line is essentially flat, or a slow decline. The at RealClearPolitics shows Trump falling from a peak of 30.5 percent on Sept. 18 to 24 percent today. His overall lead hasn鈥檛 changed much, though, as second-place runner Dr. Carson has seen a similar dip in his RCP figure.

But he鈥檚 no longer going up. And if the shark isn鈥檛 moving forward, is it doomed? Has the collapse of The Donald鈥檚 presidential bid finally begun?

After all, there have been empty seats at some recent Trump rallies. In the Fox survey, respondents said by a 4-to-1 margin that Fiorina did better than Trump in the last debate. He was oddly subdued on Stephen Colbert鈥檚 鈥淟ate Show.鈥�

Some top pundits think this all adds up.

鈥淪everal new polls out all showing the same thing: Trump balloon slowly deflating,鈥� New Yorker writer Ryan Lizza.

鈥淭rump is now at war with just about anybody in sight 鈥� Fox News, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, and now Marco Rubio, his critique of whom includes his youth and his propensity to perspire,鈥� Thursday morning. 鈥淚t suggests a potential inflection point in a GOP race Trump has owned virtually from the moment he got on that escalator.鈥�

Hmm. The words 鈥渟uggests鈥� and 鈥減otential鈥� in that statement could be key. We鈥檇 say it鈥檚 way too early to call an end to the Summer of Trump and declare Fall the season of Fiorina. The punditocracy has been overeager to predict Trump鈥檚 decline.

Remember when his dismissal of GOP Sen. John McCain鈥檚 hero status was going to end his campaign? Or how he was doomed due to his attack on Fox News personality Megyn Kelly?

We鈥檝e learned our lesson. Trump has a core of hard support from voters who rally to his harsh anti-undocumented-immigrant rhetoric. A slight decline doesn鈥檛 automatically presage further drops. Trump could stay at this level for months to come.

Or he could indeed plummet. The point is that in politics, past results don鈥檛 always predict future performance. Trump鈥檚 not doomed just because he won鈥檛 keep rising up in the polls to somewhere near 100 percent support, writes the Washington Monthly鈥檚 Ed Kilgore.

鈥� 鈥榌M]omentum鈥� in politics is an incredibly overrated and sometimes imaginary quality,鈥� .

And Trump remains a media magnet. At time of writing, four of the six most recent posts from The Washington Post 鈥淔ix鈥� political blog dealt with Trump in some manner. Six of the seven top picks at the right-leaning Hot Air website have 鈥淭rump鈥� somewhere in their headline. National Review鈥檚 鈥淐orner鈥� blog had posted twice on Trump before noon Thursday. You get the picture.

Trump has long operated his business empire on the theory that it is better to be the subject of negative reports than to be ignored. His presidential campaign may end up a lab experiment in the political utility of that theory.