Clinton crushed 'invisible primary.' Will that matter?
It鈥檚 true that Hillary Clinton is slipping in the polls. But she鈥檚 still got an overwhelming lead in another measure that political scientists consider very important: endorsements.
Mrs. Clinton has corralled the support of 59 percent of all Democratic Party national-level officials 鈥撀爂overnors, representatives, and senators 鈥� according to a list compiled by the folks at The New York Times data arm, . Joe Biden has been endorsed by 1.2 percent (that鈥檚 one governor and two lawmakers), even though he has not officially declared his candidacy. Bernie Sanders has none. He鈥檚 been shut out.
In this context, endorsements aren鈥檛 really an advertisement, like an athlete鈥檚 endorsement of a shoe. Few voters are going to think, 鈥淥h, Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York likes Hillary Clinton, maybe I鈥檒l back her, too.鈥�
What they are is a means for party elites to organize and communicate amongst themselves. These people want the strongest possible nominee on the top of the ticket. They want that person identified early, so there鈥檚 lots of time to raise money, plan strategy, and campaign.
That鈥檚 what the so-called invisible primary is all about. In the months prior to actual voting, candidates vie for the backing of party insiders. Since 1980, the number of a candidate鈥檚 endorsements has been an accurate predictor of the number of delegates that the individual will win at the convention.
鈥淓ndorsements by party leaders are the most visible part of the invisible primary,鈥� write political scientists John Sides of George Washington University and Lynn Vavreck of UCLA in their book on the 2012 race, 鈥淭he Gamble."
This year, the question is whether all those Democratic Party leaders made their pick too early.
Clintonworld did a great job in the invisible primary. All those endorsements are a big reason why VP Joe Biden didn鈥檛 lay the foundations for a 2016 run. It was clear the party had decided Clinton was its best chance to keep the White House.
Now the e-mail imbroglio and the rise of Senator Sanders have cut deeply into Clinton鈥檚 poll lead. While she still has a substantial survey lead, it鈥檚 nowhere near as overwhelming as her endorsement edge, and it鈥檚 narrowing.
If Clinton loses the nomination despite her internal party backing, it will be a huge upset 鈥� changing not just the contours of the 2016 race, but likely the way political parties conduct future invisible primaries, and the speed with which they bestow endorsement picks.
