Why Donald Trump's 2016 bid looks less and less like 'entertainment'
Remember when the Huffington Post said it was moving stories about Donald Trump from its political section to entertainment?
鈥淥ur reason is simple: Trump鈥檚 campaign is a sideshow,鈥� when they made the move in mid-July. 鈥淲e won鈥檛 take the bait.鈥�
Some sideshow. We鈥檙e not passing retroactive judgment on this move 鈥� journalism isn鈥檛 some staid club where everybody has to follow structural norms, and HuffPo should do whatever it thinks best. But Trump is looking less and less like 鈥渆ntertainment鈥� every day, and more like a presidential aspirant who, whether you like his policies or not, is going to be around for months. He seems like he鈥檚 actually, you know, trying to win.
Just look at this big rally he鈥檚 holding on Friday night in Alabama. What鈥檚 with that? Why spend time in Mobile instead of those crucial early voting states, Iowa and New Hampshire?
Because Trump is planning ahead for the so-called 鈥淪EC Primary鈥� of March 1, that鈥檚 why.聽 Alabama, Texas, Georgia, and Arkansas are among the states that will hold primaries that day. Trump鈥檚 strategy runs like this: Do really well 鈥� luxuriously well 鈥� in Iowa and New Hampshire, where鈥檚 he鈥檚 leading in polls at the moment. He鈥檚 got the money and name recognition to survive the winnowing effect of these two states, no matter what.
Then deliver a crushing blow in the South, where Trump鈥檚 harsh anti-immigration rhetoric and big-guy swagger should play well.
鈥淭rump views Alabama, and the other Southern states that hold March 1st primaries, as the key to locking down the Republican nomination,鈥� , describing the Trump approach.
Yes, there are big holes in this strategy. Trump might finally say or do something that causes his support to collapse. Pundits have been predicting that for weeks, though, and it has yet to happen.
Trump could underperform in the Iowa caucuses, causing a cascade of decline that produces a March 1 fizzle.
One by one, the laggard candidates could drop out prior to March 1, and their support could move to Jeb Bush or another non-Trump member of the GOP top tier. That鈥檚 perhaps the most likely of the ways in which the Trump bubble might burst.
As 聽political blog, Trump may be able to sustain his lead in the polls as long as 17 candidates are in the race to split the non-Trump 16 ways.
鈥淏ut 17 candidates will not be running forever,鈥� Bump writes.
But remember this: Every GOP hopeful has holes in their strategy. To varying degrees, each is depending on fate to one day swing their way.
Is Trump鈥檚 approach any less likely than, say, Ted Cruz鈥檚?
And there鈥檚 evidence that, inch-by-inch, GOP voters are taking Trump鈥檚 rise more seriously, whether they support him or not. that finds 57 percent of likely Republican voters now think Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee.
Two months ago, when he announced his bid, the corresponding figure was 27 percent.
