New poll shows Trump competitive with Clinton. Really?
| Washington
Would Donald Trump actually be an electable general election candidate?
That鈥檚 the question pinging around the Washington political world Wednesday in the wake of a new that shows The Donald running only six points behind likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters.
That represents significant movement in recent weeks, according to this poll series. In July, Mr. Trump trailed Mrs. Clinton by 16 points in CNN/ORC numbers. And to think the punditocracy thought Trump was finished after he opined that former prisoner of war Sen. John McCain wasn鈥檛 a true war hero.
Here鈥檚 our take: These numbers don鈥檛 really reflect how Trump might fare next November as nominee. It鈥檚 early. This is one poll. Political trends aren鈥檛 serious until there are more data. We in the media say that all the time but seldom follow our own advice.
Head-to-head matchups prior to the actual nomination are a particularly iffy form of survey. They measure the heat of a moment. Who knows what鈥檚 going to happen over the coming months during the actual political campaign? Predicting the future of anything involving Donald Trump at this point is a fruitless exercise.
That doesn鈥檛 mean they can stop face-palming at ClintonWorld HQ. It鈥檚 true that these numbers aren鈥檛 good news for the former secretary of State.
Think of these arbitrary head-to-heads as a rough measure of partisan balance. Given that a majority of GOP voters haven鈥檛 rallied around a front-runner, inserting 鈥淭rump鈥� or 鈥淏ush鈥� or 鈥淲alker鈥� into a matchup versus Clinton isn鈥檛 that much different than putting in 鈥淕eneric Republican Candidate.鈥� It鈥檚 as much an indication of Clinton鈥檚 relative strength versus the entire field as anything else.
And Clinton鈥檚 leads are not wide. The CNN/ORC survey has her six points ahead of Scott Walker as well as Trump. She鈥檚 nine points in front of Jeb Bush, and an almost-comfortable 10 ahead of Carly Fiorina. [Editor's note: The original misstated the poll results for Mr. Walker, Mr. Bush, and Ms. Fiorina.]
In contrast she鈥檚 got an overall 25 point lead over Bernie Sanders.
This bears repeating: Clinton to win the Democratic nomination, but the general election is likely to be close. Very close. That鈥檚 something enthusiastic Clinton supporters tend to overlook.
As an aside, we鈥檒l note that the CNN/ORC survey also shows that the Clinton e-mail controversy could damage her prospects. Fifty-six percent of respondents said that in using a home server and personal e-mail while secretary of State, Clinton 鈥渄id something wrong.鈥� That鈥檚 up five points since March.
Trump鈥檚 relative parity with the rest of the GOP field here might indicate one thing: He鈥檚 not going away. All those 鈥渆nd of Trump鈥� stories, dealing with his McCain comments, his slap at Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly, his birthright citizenship remarks, and so forth, have proved premature.
Over at the Washington Monthly, left-leaning Ed Kilgore reiterates that this is one poll. It鈥檚 early.
鈥淏ut it鈥檚 another blow to the iron confidence of Establishment Republicans and MSM types and political scientists that all this 鈥榩opulist鈥� nonsense will blow over and Republican voters will obediently fall in line for the candidate with the most endorsements by party leaders,鈥�
