海角大神

Scott Walker鈥檚 presidential campaign has hit a rough patch, as we鈥檝e already noted. He鈥檚 trying to right the wheelbarrow and get things back on the garden path 鈥� and maybe draw some media attention away from Donald Trump 鈥� so on Tuesday, the Wisconsin governor to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Is this a smart move? In political terms, it could well be. GOP voters generally detest Obamacare, so Governor Walker might be able to use the subject of health care to sidestep continued questions about immigration and other Trump-driven agenda items. He can point to the 鈥渞eplace鈥� part of the proposal as evidence that he鈥檚 got serious plans for action on Oval Office Day 1.

Furthermore, it provides him an opportunity to take a slap at the current GOP electoral leadership. The party controls the House and Senate, right? Why haven鈥檛 they put a bill to repeal Obamacare on President Obama鈥檚 desk?

And Walker gets to look like, well, a leader. This is what leaders do. At this point, it鈥檚 time to move beyond the repeal rhetoric that鈥檚 dominated the GOP discussion.

鈥淎 Republican Party that wants to govern should actually know what it wants to do with the health care system in America,鈥� writes Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry 聽聽鈥淎nd critically, it鈥檚 no longer smart politics to be hush-hush about it: Any Republican president is going to have to sell the American people on a genuine vision of where to take the health care system.鈥�

But from a policy point of view, the implications of Walker鈥檚 plan may be a bit different. If nothing else, they show a tough truth about the American health-care system: It鈥檚 so complicated that it鈥檚 really hard to design a viable plan for sweeping change.

Walker would get rid of Obamacare鈥檚 system of state-based health insurance exchange marketplaces and income-based tax credit subsidies. In its place, he鈥檇 erect a system where taxpayers get an age-based tax-credit subsidy to help them buy private health plans.

Not that different? Well, Walker would eliminate O鈥檆are鈥檚 requirement that Americans have health insurance, so that would be one major change.

But Walker鈥檚 subsidies top out at $3,000 a person for over-50-year-olds. For 18-to-34s, the tax-credit subsidy would be $1,200 per year. Is that enough to buy good health coverage in most of the US? That鈥檚 an open question.

That leaves Walker open to a Democratic charge that he鈥檚 going to lower the percentage of Americans with insurance plans.

鈥淪cott Walker wants to kick people off of their health care. He鈥檚 wrong. We need Medicare for all, not a return to a broken system,鈥� on Tuesday.

On the other hand, Walker鈥檚 plan wouldn鈥檛 be cheap. He would deal with preexisting conditions by broader use of state high-risk pools, which in practice have proved to be extremely expensive. Plus, he鈥檇 eliminate all Obamacare鈥檚 sources of revenue, without really specifying what would replace them.

In the opinion of health-care expert Avik Roy, an adviser to 2016 rival Gov. Rick Perry, Walker鈥檚 proposal would cost about $1.1 trillion over 10 years. Yet it devotes only two sentences to outlining how this might be paid for.

鈥淭he point is, it鈥檚 easy to promise to expand coverage or replace Obamacare. What鈥檚 hard is paying for it in ways that are politically viable,鈥� .听

This leaves Walker open to criticism from the right that he's proposing to repeal Obamacare and replace it with Obamacare-light. Call it Walkercare.

鈥淕overnor Walker makes the same mistake President Obama did: creating a new entitlement program we can鈥檛 afford,鈥� tweeted Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, another GOP presidential hopeful, on Tuesday.

The design, passage, and implementation of Obamacare was a massive policy struggle that consumed Washington for a lengthy period. For better or worse, it鈥檚 one of the defining legacies of Mr. Obama鈥檚 presidency. What Walker鈥檚 plan might reveal is that replacing Obamacare, at this point, might require a similar effort on the part of any Republican chief executive.