Poll shows Clinton trails Sanders in New Hampshire. Should she panic?
Hillary Clinton has fallen behind Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire, . She now attracts 37 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the Granite State, while liberal fireball Sanders gets 44 percent.
Yes, it鈥檚 just one poll. Yes, the Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald survey has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points, meaning it鈥檚 possible that Mrs. Clinton and Senator Sanders are actually tied. Yes, the poll is based on phone interviews with only 442 people. That鈥檚 not exactly a big sample.聽
Still, the same pollsters in March had Clinton ahead of Sanders by 44 to 8 percent.
鈥淭hat is ... a big swing,鈥�
Is it time for panic in Chappaqua? The news is doubly bad for Clintonworld today, given that the former secretary of State has turned over to the FBI her personal e-mail server and a thumb drive with copies of 30,000 e-mails sent from her controversial private system.
Well, at the lower levels sheer terror is certainly a viable position. Political campaigns run on lattes and lack of sleep, producing an atmosphere in which black humor is appropriate for almost any occasion. But it鈥檚 not time for panic on the bridge. Hillary Clinton is still the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination for president.
It would still be an upset of historical proportions for anyone to beat her. Yes, Joe Biden 鈥� we鈥檙e looking at you. (The general election is another story, but that鈥檚 not our subject at the moment.)
Look at the national polls. According to , Clinton is ahead of Sanders among Democratic voters by 36 points. She wins an absolute majority of her party even with Vice President Biden included in the race.
Plus, if Sanders is going to win any important primary state, New Hampshire is the logical choice. He鈥檚 likely to do much better there than in the overall contest.
First, it鈥檚 next door to his home state of Vermont. Second, Sanders resembles the Old Man of the Mountain 鈥� that iconic Granite State rock formation that鈥檚 on the reverse of the state quarter. (We鈥檙e surprised he hasn鈥檛 campaigned on this.) And finally, and most importantly, New Hampshire is just full of the kind of voters that like Sanders the most 鈥� white liberals.
Nate Silver at the ran the numbers on this a few weeks ago. Fully 54 percent of the Democratic primary vote in New Hampshire is composed of white liberals. The only state with a larger share is ... Vermont, with 59 percent.
Iowa is third, with 50 percent.
In fact, it鈥檚 possible that Clinton could lose to Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire and win everywhere else, writes Silver. Other early primary states, such as South Carolina, have a low percentage of liberals in their Democratic electorate. The case is the same for big prize states such as California.
鈥淚owa and New Hampshire aren鈥檛 representative of the more diverse electorates that Democrats will turn out elsewhere,鈥� according to Mr. Silver. 鈥淚t just so happens that the idiosyncrasies of the first two states match Sanders鈥� strengths and Clinton鈥檚 relative weaknesses.鈥�
