Will Donald Trump slap at Megyn Kelly be his downfall?
Has Donald Trump reached a turning point? That鈥檚 perhaps question one in US politics today following . The Donald was center stage at this opening event of the primary campaign season, both literally and metaphorically. He鈥檚 the poll frontrunner, so perhaps he got more attention than the other contenders. Fox moderators jabbed him with pointed questions and Trump at times jabbed back.
His exchange with moderator Megyn Kelly was particularly heated. She asked him why he often publicly disparages women鈥檚 appearance, and whether that would make it easy for Democrats to portray him as part of a war on women. Mr. Trump basically side-stepped Ms. Kelly鈥檚 question, saying that 鈥淚 frankly don鈥檛 have time for political correctness.鈥� Then he implicitly threatened her by saying that perhaps he鈥檇 been nicer to her in the past than he should have been.
Trump kept the argument going after hours via his Twitter feed, in which he numerous comments critical of Kelly鈥檚 question.
鈥淚 thought Megyn behaved very badly, personally,鈥� said Trump to reporters after the debate was over.
This and other Trumpian reactions caused many pundits to downgrade Trump鈥檚 political future. 鈥淢orning Joe鈥� MSNBC host Joe Scarborough predicted Trump might now lose up to eight points off his poll numbers.
A widely cited of undecided GOP voters from pollster Frank Luntz didn鈥檛 react well to Trump鈥檚 antics as the night wore on. The group didn鈥檛 like Trump鈥檚 refusal to pledge support for the eventual Republican nominee. Voters complained about his name-calling and lack of specific solutions.
Brookings Institution senior fellow for governance William Galston echoed this reaction.
鈥淎lthough it is hard to know the limits of what Trump鈥檚 supporters are willing to tolerate, my hunch is that the debate damaged his prospects,鈥� Galston . 鈥淲hen challenged about numerous statements that seemed on their face to be demeaning to women, he had not effective response.鈥�
But 鈥� and you know a 鈥渂ut鈥� was coming 鈥� don鈥檛 all of us (and by 鈥渦s鈥� we mean the general political establishment and members of the punditocracy) seem a bit eager to pronounce the Age of Trump over?
So far he鈥檚 blundered his way into the early poll lead. Perhaps it鈥檚 mostly his emotion by itself that voters are responding to. They don鈥檛 want three-point plans. His supporters might desire anger, pure and simple.
Here鈥檚 a startling nugget, courtesy of University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato鈥檚 newsletter: 43 percent of Republicans say they are angry at President Obama 鈥渁lways, most of the time.鈥�
鈥淒onald Trump鈥檚 surge in the polls among Republican primary voters is likely due to his ability to give voice to frustration and anger among a large segment of the GOP base at the failure of Republicans in Congress to reverse the politics of the Obama administration over the past six and a half years,鈥� write Alan Abramowitz and Steven Webster of Emory University in Crystal Ball.
In that context, Trump鈥檚 dismissive replies to debate questions might only make his supporters grow fonder. Remember, very few of them actually watched the debate through, as did Luntz鈥檚 focus group voters. Instead, they鈥檒l experience it as snippets and media sound bites. That can produce a very different emotional reaction.
Plus, don鈥檛 underestimate Trump鈥檚 sheer television ability. His twist and dodge on Kelly鈥檚 tough question was a textbook performance. He avoided a specific answer and reframed the query on his terms. She didn鈥檛 ask, 鈥淲hat do you think about political correctness?鈥� But that鈥檚 the answer he gave.
Rule 1 of TV training: Don鈥檛 answer the question you鈥檙e asked. Answer the question you wish you鈥檇 been asked.
Bottom line: Don鈥檛 write Trump鈥檚 political epitaph yet. It seems to us there鈥檚 some wishful thinking in the establishment鈥檚 pronouncements he鈥檚 now headed downhill.
