John Kasich enters race. Is he 2016's Jon Huntsman?
Is John Kasich the Jon Huntsman Jr. of 2016 鈥� a GOP presidential hopeful doomed by party suspicion that he鈥檚 really a moderate squish?
That鈥檚 a question rolling around the US punditocracy as Ohio Governor Kasich officially kicks off his candidacy for the Oval Office.
Speaking at his alma mater, Ohio State, in Columbus on Tuesday, Kasich emphasized that he鈥檚 the most experienced person in the race in terms of government service. As a veteran congressmen and a two-term governor of a major swing state, he鈥檚 dealt with important aspects of the federal budget and US national security, as well as state government. He said that 10 years at Lehman Brothers taught him something about business as well.
鈥淚 have the experience and the testing, the testing which shapes you and prepares you for the most important job in the world,鈥� said Kasich. 鈥淎nd I believe I know how to work and help restore this great United States.鈥�
Most political reporters agree that Kasich is a serious contender in terms of his qualifications. He鈥檚 more widely popular in his home state than is Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, for instance. Unlike Jeb Bush, he鈥檚 worked in Washington 鈥� where as chairman of the House Budget Committee he played a major role in balancing the federal books.
True, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has state legislative experience. But he鈥檚 never chaired a Capitol Hill panel, as Kasich has. Senator Rubio has but five years of D.C. service. Kasich had 18.
But r茅sum茅s聽don鈥檛 win elections. Votes do. And that鈥檚 where the Huntsman analogy enters the picture. Kasich reminds some experts of Mr. Huntsman, the former governor of Utah and ambassador to China who entered the 2012 race in a blaze of flags and choreographed glory, then cratered.
Huntsman devoted all his money and effort to the New Hampshire primary, where he finished third. He then dropped out and endorsed Mitt Romney.
Like Huntsman, Kasich has made the Granite State a center of his electoral plans. Like Huntsman, Kasich relishes scolding fellow Republicans for insufficient adherence to reality.
Kasich has even hired Huntman鈥檚 former campaign brain trust, including top adviser John Weaver. The result: an announcement that resembled Huntsman鈥檚 somewhat dramatic, rambling kickoff.
鈥�#Kasich roll-out reminds me so much of my dad鈥檚 four years ago,鈥� , an MSNBC host, on Tuesday. 鈥淪ame team, same timing, similar strategy. Hope it ends better for him.鈥�
But the comparison to Huntsman that may hurt Kasich the most is ideological. Huntsman鈥檚 bid was doomed in part due to his deviations from Republican norms 鈥� he supported reductions in greenhouse gases to fight climate change, for instance. As Utah governor, he threatened to veto a bill that repealed in-state college tuition for illegal immigrants.
Worst of all, Huntsman worked for the Obama administration as its envoy to Beijing.
Kasich, in many ways, is a rock-ribbed conservative who is well to Huntsman鈥檚 right. His pursuit of balanced budgets is legendary. But he supports Common Core educational standards. He鈥檚 backed comprehensive immigration reform. Worst of all from the point of view of GOP conservatives, Kasich has expanded Medicaid in Ohio, as allowed under Obamacare.
Kasich also seems to enjoy telling off Republicans who disagree with him, points out National Journal鈥檚 Shane Goldmacher in a piece on the Kasich-Huntsman parallels.
鈥淎lready, Kasich鈥檚 list of GOP apostasies is long,鈥� .
The result of all this: little support for Kasich among conservatives. Some on the GOP right wing add that they鈥檇 actively work against a Republican ticket that includes Kasich.
鈥淚 look forward to calling John Kasich a former Presidential candidate,鈥� on Tuesday.
Odds are he鈥檒l get that chance. Right now, Kasich isn鈥檛 even in the top 10 in GOP polls, meaning he鈥檇 miss the first debate, held Aug. 6 in his home state.
Kasich probably will get a bounce from his announcement Tuesday, though its size remains to be seen. His advisers say he鈥檚 focusing more on the New Hampshire primary than early media exposure, but even there he faces obstacles. Other contenders, notably New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, are trying the same thing.
Kasich鈥檚 got money: A group that backs him has at least $11 million in the bank. That鈥檚 more than Huntsman ever had. But unless he figures a way to break out of the 1-percent-in-the-polls crowd, the Ohio governor could duplicate the Huntsman flameout.
鈥淚f you鈥檙e interested in Kasich-mania, watch closely. It probably won鈥檛 last,鈥� at the Washington Monthly "Political Animal" blog.
