Jeb Bush staff shake-up: Sign he's losing 'invisible primary'?
Jeb Bush shook up his staff Monday amid reports that he and his supporters aren鈥檛 pleased with the progress, or lack thereof, of his campaign for the White House.
Yes, we know he hasn鈥檛 officially declared yet. That鈥檚 supposed to happen in Miami on June 15. But Mr. Bush has been running hard in the invisible primary stage of the GOP nomination contest. He鈥檚 been courting donors and party leaders and trying to build his image. And that hasn鈥檛 been going so well. He hasn鈥檛 lost the invisible primary, but he isn鈥檛 winning it either.
The money is indeed flowing in. But in early polls Bush is bunched together in a front-runner tier with others, such as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and fellow Floridian Sen. Marco Rubio. Republican luminaries aren鈥檛 exactly lining up to endorse him and jump on his team.
There鈥檚 no growing sense of inevitability about the Bush effort. In that sense Jeb is already behind where his brother George W. was at a similar point in 1999.
鈥淏ush remains in a strong position for the nomination. But the fact that he hasn鈥檛 obviously scared anyone out of the race (indeed, this is one of the most crowded races in history) is pretty telling. There will be very little margin of error for him,鈥� , an associate professor of political science at the University of Denver, on the 鈥淢ischiefs of Faction鈥� political blog.
In this context the staff move may be telling, especially since it involves the top person in Jeb's 2016 staff. David Kochel, a veteran Iowa political strategist long assumed to be Bush鈥檚 choice for campaign manager, won鈥檛 get that job. Instead he鈥檒l be 鈥渃hief strategist,鈥� . The campaign manager job will go to Danny Diaz, a Washington-based communications strategist.
Mr. Diaz might be the exemplar of a new generation of top campaign operatives. He鈥檚 known for moving fast in response to breaking news and for hitting opponents hard with negative research. He鈥檚 probably a better fit for a world in which social media can drive political news at the speed of Twitter.
That鈥檚 an infusion of skill the Bush team needs, according to veteran Washington Examiner political analyst Byron York. Republicans outside the Bush team groaned as they watched Jeb struggle through the multi-day flap about his halting response to the question of whether he鈥檇 have invaded Iraq, knowing what we know now.
鈥淲hile a single episode won鈥檛 sink a campaign, [the Iraq incident] shook supporters鈥� confidence in Bush鈥檚 ability to handle future setbacks. Diaz, the hope goes, will address problems like that much more quickly and decisively,鈥� .
