海角大神

Hillary Clinton鈥檚 been hit with lots of tough news reports in recent weeks. For instance, many journalists have been exploring the nexus between the Clinton Foundation, its donors, and Mrs. Clinton鈥檚 actions as secretary of State. Others have taken hard looks at the Clinton family鈥檚 personal finances. Did you know Bill and Hillary Clinton have made about $25 million giving speeches since January 2014? That鈥檚 what . Wow. Just think how much that is, per anecdote.

Clinton鈥檚 pesky e-mails also continue . You know 鈥� the ones that she sent via her own private server while she was secretary of State. A federal judge on Tuesday ordered the State Department to release those on a rolling basis after they鈥檙e reviewed. Foggy Bottom had preferred to wait and make them public all at once.

But is this steady stream of negativity hurting Clinton鈥檚 standing with the public? We鈥檇 argue that it isn鈥檛, really. What it is doing is help push away voters who weren鈥檛 actually going to mark a ballot for her in the end. That exodus was inevitable. The only question was when it would happen.

鈥淗illary Clinton has thus far weathered the political storms swirling around her fairly well,鈥� in a recent analysis of Clinton鈥檚 electoral position.

A quick glance at a聽and you would not think that鈥檚 the case. She appears to be on a steady decline in this important measure. In November 2012, about 58 percent of voters had a positive view of her, and 33 percent had a negative view, according to Huffpost Pollster鈥檚 rolling average of major surveys. Today those two lines have converged. About 46 percent of voters have a favorable impression of Clinton, while 48 percent have a negative one.

She鈥檚 been dropping steadily. She鈥檚 one of the most famous people in the world, so voters must have had a strong impression of her already. It looks as if they鈥檙e changing their minds, and not in a good way as far as the Democrats are concerned.

However, the vast majority of the erosion in Clinton鈥檚 favorability ratings has occurred among self-described Republicans and Republican leaners. In March, about 75 percent of Republicans viewed her negatively, according to Gallup鈥檚 own figures. Now, 90 percent do.

鈥淥ver the same period, her unfavorable rating has increased only three percentage points among independents and Democrats, hardly significant except that it has held at this slightly higher level for two months,鈥� .

Those Republicans weren鈥檛 going to vote for her anyway. They were going to come home to their party鈥檚 nominee, when that person is named. Partisanship is one of the strongest predictors of eventual choice in a presidential election.

Clinton鈥檚 overall numbers were high when she was serving as secretary of State, the emissary of the nation. When she quit and morphed into just another politician, her numbers reverted to what they鈥檇 been before she walked into Foggy Bottom.

She鈥檚 been here before, poll-wise. That鈥檚 one of the singular things about Hillary Clinton. As a Pew study pointed out two years ago, Clinton in her time in the public eye has fallen underwater in her favorability rating at least four times previously, and then recovered to a height of 50 or 60 percent approval.

鈥淚t is rare for a political figure to accomplish that feat once in a career, much less four times,鈥� .

That鈥檚 unlikely to happen again anytime soon, given the partisan nature of a White House race. But it鈥檚 an indication of the resilience of Clinton鈥檚 image against the long backdrop of the tumult of her years as first lady, senator, and presidential candidate.