Does Hillary Clinton have a 'trustworthiness' problem?
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| Washington
Does Hillary Clinton have a trustworthiness problem?
We ask the question in that manner because we鈥檙e talking here about voter perception of Mrs. Clinton more than our judgment of her character per se. Reports of the appearance of conflicts of interest between her role as secretary of State and foreign donations to her family foundation have generated lots of headlines in recent days. It鈥檚 possible that those reports are already taking a toll on her image.聽
Clintonworld is surely worried that might happen. On Sunday, the Clinton Foundation hit back with a of some of the allegations of problems with the organization鈥檚 tax returns. For instance, foreign donations linked to Russian uranium interests went to a Canadian affiliate of the foundation, not the US HQ itself. Canadian law prohibits disclosure of charitable donations without donor permission.
The foundation鈥檚 labyrinthine nature may make it more difficult for the media, and hence voters, to follow this money trail. As the explanation notes, the Clinton Foundation has 11 different initiatives, organized in different ways. Much of its work involves wooing donors to give directly to field charities, not the foundation itself.
That means voters鈥 response to initial (confusing) reports will depend crucially on how voters already feel about Clinton herself. This brings us back to the word 鈥渢rustworthy.鈥
There is some indication that Clinton鈥檚 trustworthiness is declining with the US public. A new that鈥檚 produced lots of buzz amongst political wonks found that 54 percent 鈥 more than a majority 鈥 of respondents said the former secretary of State was 鈥渘ot trustworthy.鈥 Only 38 percent said she was. Those are not great numbers for a presidential candidate.
Republicans overwhelmingly did not judge Clinton honest. But her numbers here were bad among independents as well 鈥 with 60 percent in the 鈥渘ot trustworthy鈥 category.
However, we think there鈥檚 less here than meets the eye, and not just because it鈥檚 one poll taken very early in the 2016 cycle.
First, this doesn鈥檛 threaten her virtual lock on the Democratic nomination. Ignore all the stories about unnamed top Democrats second-guessing her status and pining for Elizabeth Warren to run. That same Quinnipiac survey shows she is still the nominee choice of 60 percent of Democrats. Her lead is 50 points over the second-place Vice President Joe Biden.
This is close to the rolling average of major polls. If Clinton were to lose the nomination, it would be the biggest US political primary upset of modern times.
Second, 鈥渢rustworthy鈥 is a loaded survey word. It implies that maybe there鈥檚 something about this person you should know. The more general query is whether you have a favorable opinion of this politician or not, and Clinton鈥檚 numbers there don鈥檛 appear to be affected by the Clinton Foundation donation stories.
In the Quinnipiac survey Clinton鈥檚 favorable rating is 46 percent positive, higher than the trustworthy measure. This is in line with other polls. The average has her favorability at 47.4 percent favorable, 47.2 percent unfavorable. That鈥檚 about where it鈥檚 been since November of 2013.
Hillary鈥檚 favorable rating was much higher when she was serving as secretary of State. It then fell to a level commensurate with the ratings of President Obama. Clinton鈥檚 future popularity may be tied more closely to public approval or disapproval of the current administration than to complicated stories about her foundation鈥檚 finances.
Finally, Clinton鈥檚 perceived trustworthiness issues might affect the Republican nomination race more than the Democratic one.
That鈥檚 because many in the GOP think their best chance to beat Clinton would be a candidate who can best exploit suspicions about her past and voter fatigue with the drama that has long accompanied her and her husband鈥檚 public lives.
This might hurt Jeb Bush. His own family has produced lots of political drama over the decades, and his business career has produced allegations of conflicts of interest that might match those directed against the Clinton Foundation.
But somebody without that baggage, maybe young, without years of a political record to mine for negative nuggets, might be more competitive. Somebody such as Sen. Marco Rubio, who in the Quinnipiac survey is only two points behind Clinton in a head-to-head matchup, the closest of any GOP wannabe.